Thursday, November 22, 2012

Very Active Pattern Next Week



Only a couple days removed from our last active pattern and we're already tracking the next.  We'll do a quick walk through of one operational forecast model (The American GFS) Starting next Wednesday night...



The image above shows the approaching initial cold front.  This is valid around 10:00 pm Wednesday night and the rain is starting slide into the folks to the west.


By 10:00 am Thursday morning the main precipitation shield has moved into the Northstate.  This initial wave of rain will bring high snow levels, likely around 7,000 ft.

Fast forward to 4:00 am Friday morning and another heavy line of rain is moving in and snow levels are dropping.  At this time snow levels around 5000 feetish

By 4:00 pm Friday snow levels continue to drop with very heavy precipitation continuing to funnel in


Continuing on to 4:00 am Saturday morning and this a very interesting output.  Very heavy precipitation with snow levels likely below 4000 ft.  So this could have major travel issues on several roadways
Finally a slight break in the action 4:00 am Saturday yet you can see more precipitation off to the north heading for the Northstate.

By 4:00 am the following Monday morning heavy precipitation moves in with snow levels back above 5000 ft.

By 4:00 pm more precipitation with snow levels back below 5000 ft

Even by 4:00 pm Tuesday still looking at scattered mountain snow showers. Snow levels around 4000ft


As always this is just one model run (quite the model run!!) so this is mainly to look for trends rather than exact timing and amounts.


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