As mentioned since last week we have some very heavy rain heading for the Northstate this week. Model agreement continues to be high so this is shaping into a high confidence event 4- 5 days out. A very strong trough will stall-out off shore, which will in turn tap into a very strong tropical moisture feed. Several impulses of energy will rotate around the trough flinging moisture at the Northstate through next weekend.
Here's a quick look at the GFS 7 day total precipitation output through next Monday morning. It is easy to see that the mountains locations could easily pick up over the 10+" of rain! Even the valley is approaching over 6-7" in the northern half of the valley!
The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center only forecast total rain out to 5-days. So through 4:00 am Saturday morning you can already see mountain locations seeing 7" based on their forecast. This of course doesn't take into account Saturday and Sunday's rain too.
The image above is the hires simulated radar of the initial band/cold front slowly moving ashore. This is valid at 4:00 am Wednesday morning. This is actually a hair slower than some other models but it still gives you an idea of the rain coming in.
A wide view of the precipitation coming in and you can see the huge moisture feed going out nearly a 1,000 miles into the subtropics, feeding all the way into the Northstate.
This is the snow accumulation map. This can only go out to 72 hours (through Thursday morning.) You can see only the highest passes getting snow. This will be a fairly warm event. Also the lowest snow levels will likely be found Wednesday into Thursday (possibly down to 5,000ft) before snow levels rise even higher.
Strong south winds will also be a problem just like last week's storms. With each front that comes in winds will increase out of the south. We may see Wind Advisories issued and even some High Wind Warnings too for the higher passes.
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