The last 4 weeks the Northstate has remained dry, mild, and sunny. The main culprit....a large blocking high pressure system to our west. This high has blocked any system from penetrating the Northstate. The only activity has been low pressure systems rotating clockwise around this high and brushing us on the northeast side. We call these backdoor sliders, which are typical Northstate wind events.
Why has this been occurring? We are in a weak LA NINA?? Well a few things, activity in the poles and arctic have been weak. This has kept the jet stream from buckling and sending waves and storms down south to the Northstate.
Another large factor is the MJO Activity (Madden Julian Oscillation) it's been non existent the last month. THE MJO plays a huge factor in the Western United States in the Winter, especially in weak LA NINA/Neutral conditions(which we currently are).
Here's where we are. the last month nothing, but you will notice the orange (thunderstorm activity) beginning to emerge into Frame.
Here's the 15 day forecast, a huge event occurring towards days 11-15 in the Indian Ocean.
So what does this mean?? Notice the blocking high in this first phase and then the transition.
This phase shift will probably take some time to work into the Southern Pacific and does not guarantee any big storms but it is a light at the end of the tunnel
here's some material on this.....
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