A Cold, Stormy Pattern on The Horizon?

After a very dry and mild November and December, the big question is when is this going to change and when are we going to get some snow and rain?

The main issue is the blocking high off the coast of California. This has deflecting every approaching storm to our north/northeast.  Even this weekend we will see another short lived ridge build over the Northstate clearing us out and keeping us mild.

Now we mainly use forecast models, including the images I'm including in this blogpost, as tools rather than a conclusion of what's going to happen.  We look for pattern changes rather than the exact placement of a low, high, or large Gulf of Alaska trough.  Here's the latest GFS model run from Friday morning.  It should be noted that this is the third big run in a row that includes a cold/wet pattern ahead.

This is this coming Thursday (Jan 6th).  Our first semi cold/wet system in a while.  This system should be out of here by Next Friday and we will likely clear back out for another 3-4 days.  Before an even larger pattern change..

Forecast models are now hinting at a sustain cold/wet outbreak as early as January 10th.

Again just use this as a tool not a end all be all.  But by two weeks from now a very stormy pattern setting up for the Northstate.  A wave train of storms out of Alaska!  Lots of time in between but it should be fun to watch and track the next 1.5 to 2 weeks!

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/MRF_12z/mrfloop2.html

Rob