Showers have died out for the night as a piece of energy has moved off to our west. Yesterday I was thinking we would miss out on the forcing to our northwest but the energy followed more of a west to east phasing. Most locations missed out on moisture but a few spots, including Redding, saw brief but heavy downpours. Locations off to our southwest picked up on quite a bit of sunshine and made into the upper 60's.
Now for the Weekend...models have backed off on moisture feed and intensity of the low and high as well as positioning. The surface low projection is further north and the surface high will be weaker going by the GFS. I tend to side with the GFS because of better initiation and obs when following short term 500 mb wave progression. The European so far this winter has done a better job in long term rossby wave forecasting. All in all it looks like we are going to miss out on the strong conveyer belt of moisture the models were pointing to yesterday.
It appears the heaviest of the rain will begin to arrive Saturday night into early morning hours Sunday .
With the sharp upper level wave approaching into Sunday night into early Monday morning hours we will begin to see another round of showers. QG lift will be lost to a positive tilt and locations to our south will pick up on the stronger vorticity.
However we might see some moisture kicked back into the NorthState with the wave going negative. We should see enough cyclonic vorticty to allow for additonal moisture to be pulled back into the valley.
So not as promising as yesterday with signs of a mini pineapple express but still some decent qpf amounts Saturday afternoon through Monday Morning.
No comments:
Post a Comment