Great day outside today, we are getting closer and closer to spring. 850 temps this afternoon were around 5 degrees Celsius and if dropped dry adiabatically, valley temps could have reached into the 70's. However, High thin clouds overhead reduced solar radiation this afternoon as well as gusty winds. Still managed to make into the 60's and considering the weather the last 2 weeks, not too bad
Now this weekend we have a couple systems pushing through all the way into early morning hours Monday.
We will begin to see a few widely scattered to isolated insentropic showers limited to the mountains and a few valley communities Saturday afternoon.
The first system brings heavy moisture and arrives Saturday night into early Sunday morning. We will see a 1012 mb low advect moisture into the region Saturday night. The High to our southwest will also advect subtropical moisture all the way into NorthState.
You can actually follow the moisture all the way from the ITZ , through Hawaii, around the high and into the NorthState. A minature pineapple express basically. Precipitate water values will be almost 2 standard deviations above average Saturday night so 700 mb moisture feed should not be an issue. The GFS and the Nam both push this sfc low through pretty quickly so pops will be high but limited in qpf. Still could be possible to squeeze a quarter to a half an inch out in the valley through Sunday morning.
The next trough will push through Sunday night with a quick trailing cold front. Still possible to see a negative enough tilt to pull some moisture back into the NorthState.
If we can hold onto the 500 mb cold pool long enough into the afternoon hours on Monday we will have enough daytime heating and extremely high lapse rates to allow for thunderstorms, hail, and heavy downpours.
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