The pattern the first 6 weeks of 2013 has been large blocking highs over the Northstate with weak systems every 10 days or so. The latest ridge of high pressure continues to sit and amplify through the end of this work week.
(A look at Friday's anomaly afternoon highs.
You can see 10-20 degrees above normal highs)
The last 40 days the MJO has moved from phase 4 to 5 to 6 to 7 to 8 to 1 and now situated in Phase 2. In the next few days the MJO index will move into phase 3 which is our wettest phase of the 8. The MJO is one the biggest players in West Coast weather.
Here's a look at the all 8 phases compared to climate averages. And you can clearly see how Phase 3 easily outweighs the other 7.
Our next system (pictured above) will rotate down from out of the North, Northwest Monday night and into Tuesday morning. That trajectory is not the wettest route but this system will tap into a .80" PWAT plume (maybe under modeled at this time)
You can see the moisture tap out of the southwest with PWAT values (again maybe under represented) approaching .80" values.
GFS modeled precipitation by 10:00am next Tuesday morning. 850 mb temperatures would promote snow levels around 3,000ft and dropping.
GFS modeled precipitation by 4:00 pm on Tuesday, most of the Northstate under mountain snow and valley rain.
Accumulated snow with Tuesday's system. This is extremely low-res modeling since we are still 6 days out. Look for better resolution and accuracy once we get within the range of the higher resolution forecast models.
Again extremely low-res modeling but you get the idea with total precipitation too. Of course this image above is if everything fell in the form of rain. I would expect maybe around a .50"of valley rain, unless we see the development of thunderstorms which would bump these totals.
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