Storms Next Week

We are a little over three days away from this unseasonably strong, cool, and wet system.  First off this system began showing up on model runs early last week and really began to catch my eye Tuesday night.  If you will remember, it was Wednesday morning's Daybreak show where we began to mention it and place it on our 7 day forecast.

As always the forecast models wavered, fluctuated, and even completely lost it in the days that followed.  It wasn't really until Thursday night/Friday morning that models completely jumped into unison and formed a consensus.  That consensus is a sharp upper level cut off low situated in a trough that will come ashore Northern California and track over the Northstate.

 

This is the 12z GFS valid tomorrow morning you will notice a slight ridge moving into the area.  This ridge is being pushed up by the approaching upper level low off to our northwest.  This entire low movement is being forced south by strong vort maxs to it's north.  

You can now see the separated low descending from the northern stream being fueled by vort maxes.