tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27202189954959475182024-03-04T23:26:23.054-08:00Rob Elvington's NorthState Forecast BlogRobert Elvingtonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00496807094727050039noreply@blogger.comBlogger35125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2720218995495947518.post-66305756538693875982013-02-27T11:04:00.001-08:002013-02-27T11:11:27.484-08:00Meteorological Winter vs. Astronomical Winter<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Tomorrow is the last day of "Meteorological Winter" for the Northern Hemisphere. Lets take a look at the differences in the customary "Astronomical Winter," which ends on March 20th.</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWd0TzuIL8xjJcZulH91_HelkQnwUcvqqkdE7bxSfSIhlbcfMervwiFAXnaKDjLVlT17B3uprRoDVk3u_-ydQRfZKkoKvI43yraLc-4qCK7AJoFDwYpjDCMhYTyi8ES5-mjAJbA7G7lrba/s1600/meteowinter.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWd0TzuIL8xjJcZulH91_HelkQnwUcvqqkdE7bxSfSIhlbcfMervwiFAXnaKDjLVlT17B3uprRoDVk3u_-ydQRfZKkoKvI43yraLc-4qCK7AJoFDwYpjDCMhYTyi8ES5-mjAJbA7G7lrba/s320/meteowinter.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
First of all we use Meteorological Winter because temperatures and weather are more similar during this period and slightly more evenly distributed. </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRvc8vgENdTB_8VJ0on4dwOiGj4W6dDezAljcKTbELcqT7jpL-p-2t2_0y6bB96RpTYhCFGdiqpMOn6iOMOmrv2JHVAeZ_T4jVRHFEJDFq9k5yBJJU5NN1vnBd9onaml7F6AqhAnN-8K3D/s1600/url.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="210" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRvc8vgENdTB_8VJ0on4dwOiGj4W6dDezAljcKTbELcqT7jpL-p-2t2_0y6bB96RpTYhCFGdiqpMOn6iOMOmrv2JHVAeZ_T4jVRHFEJDFq9k5yBJJU5NN1vnBd9onaml7F6AqhAnN-8K3D/s320/url.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Astronomical Winter occurs usually right around December 20th, plus or minus a day depending on the year. The Winter Solstice for the Northern Hemisphere is when the sun angle above the horizon is at its lowest point of the year. It is also the exact moment the direct sun angle passes over the Tropic of Capricorn in the Southern Hemisphere(their summer)</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPl_WYKDRktW1tppC5RmuUr_ZcQbE_UHyXEoudG2uzqlHEVTBeltKZWODgARFDTQlDrzIPtsFqY2KnnKvmC1hQ2bCbRqHE8YIpYF2oc-3jWJFzY-JUD-ojZ29kz7ziTzqZzfWyXe6YMiBh/s1600/imgres.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPl_WYKDRktW1tppC5RmuUr_ZcQbE_UHyXEoudG2uzqlHEVTBeltKZWODgARFDTQlDrzIPtsFqY2KnnKvmC1hQ2bCbRqHE8YIpYF2oc-3jWJFzY-JUD-ojZ29kz7ziTzqZzfWyXe6YMiBh/s1600/imgres.jpg" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
The Spring Equinox, which typically occurs around March 20th, again plus or minus a day. The equinox occurs when the direct sun angle passes directly over the Equator. At this point in time Earth's axis points neither towards nor away from the direct rays of the sun.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Now let's take a look at some factors that differ during these two different classifications for winter.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4W990c9X9i0kkREbddwZxipagNb4u8PN6KrNE6xLEJx3Y_GDxsQoJ4845_4ANH_hei121muZubbtG06ARcsRarokuKqNJP4En4NZU-bCOj-_p9rb1I1Hm2ELB3Glleg4TPnLB24cnCVkg/s1600/meteowinter2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4W990c9X9i0kkREbddwZxipagNb4u8PN6KrNE6xLEJx3Y_GDxsQoJ4845_4ANH_hei121muZubbtG06ARcsRarokuKqNJP4En4NZU-bCOj-_p9rb1I1Hm2ELB3Glleg4TPnLB24cnCVkg/s320/meteowinter2.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
You'll notice that from the Winter Solstice to another 3 weeks our AVERAGE temperature (based from Climate records) in Redding bottoms out to about 45 degrees. So that Means the coldest 3 weeks of winter, on average occurs during the first 3 weeks of official winter. You'll notice that Meteorological Winter is more even distributed.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-Cl6nXK07CBYXvlHjqKDOyfLprxXFnDkYCuv83x4RtpVsQ7288E0ir8wTF1XjndQuLpLg47q16mwFP_KBDGuvobIbE8_N4D5EncezliwVc7KAMlTjEwHbROkSCeRCiLn1Mu8Z3GRdmxvH/s1600/meteowin3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-Cl6nXK07CBYXvlHjqKDOyfLprxXFnDkYCuv83x4RtpVsQ7288E0ir8wTF1XjndQuLpLg47q16mwFP_KBDGuvobIbE8_N4D5EncezliwVc7KAMlTjEwHbROkSCeRCiLn1Mu8Z3GRdmxvH/s320/meteowin3.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Same thing goes for the sun angle above the horizon at noon. The difference between the Solstice and the Equinox is 23.5 degrees. And Meteorological Winter is 13.5 degrees, more even distributed.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhL6g6WcEkDAhtnQ-MVj82_3zzO0rDWr6hLjbicTvyHJi1Ro9eeEUkJFrQMBzY5H440kqPgVY5cCcfLVkJwtx4FFNXV65_S4TdUv-r1X4Q4A207YjGVHb4-JuxnWqx_1XHg_MCCa130cZzk/s1600/meteowin4.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhL6g6WcEkDAhtnQ-MVj82_3zzO0rDWr6hLjbicTvyHJi1Ro9eeEUkJFrQMBzY5H440kqPgVY5cCcfLVkJwtx4FFNXV65_S4TdUv-r1X4Q4A207YjGVHb4-JuxnWqx_1XHg_MCCa130cZzk/s320/meteowin4.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
For length of Daylight, the difference is nearly 3 hours between the Solstice and the Equinox.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
In conclusion if we wanted a fully evenly distributed winter, it would make more since to start winter somewhere in mid to late November.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
data source: http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/astronomy.html?n=3260&month=1&year=2013&obj=sun&afl=-11&day=1</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/climate/monthdisp.php?stn=KRDD&year=2013&mon=2&wfo=sto&p=temperature</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />Robert Elvingtonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00496807094727050039noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2720218995495947518.post-19589956692476828962013-02-14T08:23:00.003-08:002013-02-14T08:41:53.399-08:00A Look Back at Valentine's Day 1977 "Heat" Wave<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Today and tomorrow will feel like record highs in the valley floor. However, looking back to 1977 you can see just how warm we got up to on Valentine's Day.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgASS7Sf0DZ2lB0QUIMFBcGcVT_4S-AYgk3xcGwPG98Jo_ZIyU_onR2iT-6GeQtYlr0VmArnQFD8LJoaTrklXcE8VRq565PQbKTdSJ0D2TFP2YucSV3xvrRNwNblUDlO_-uesXc1RRQ7V5f/s1600/record.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgASS7Sf0DZ2lB0QUIMFBcGcVT_4S-AYgk3xcGwPG98Jo_ZIyU_onR2iT-6GeQtYlr0VmArnQFD8LJoaTrklXcE8VRq565PQbKTdSJ0D2TFP2YucSV3xvrRNwNblUDlO_-uesXc1RRQ7V5f/s320/record.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
(KRDD is the Redding Airport, records only go back</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
to 1986)</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPIk7BQJEqWnNjpYibLzizhw_JV6ZjPLhl-NC0tQfhOfbBrydnWg_6RsMda6WqjwYOhKrvN-_7rAfpEyuBtaNX_eE9ZSTxziBJFMVphJyAW_OaN4Yc8ps9qdtN3vI8OZT0gttkzHpuMjWo/s1600/nam_z500_uv_conus2_8.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPIk7BQJEqWnNjpYibLzizhw_JV6ZjPLhl-NC0tQfhOfbBrydnWg_6RsMda6WqjwYOhKrvN-_7rAfpEyuBtaNX_eE9ZSTxziBJFMVphJyAW_OaN4Yc8ps9qdtN3vI8OZT0gttkzHpuMjWo/s320/nam_z500_uv_conus2_8.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Here's our current set up over the next 24 hours. Giant ridge of high pressure over the West Coast. 500 mb height levels will approach 576 dam) Which is pretty high for this time of the year.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyppcvNrlxD9kI5EOs-1g_qZIMbLrr6t8kOf2HYEtlgAkbbospnN9ohJObEyh6ist4DN0jFoCU-AAm4-F6Fqge-PTXirJU1mJ40HvQSi_0ZAyENzBdF6nmiGWGlg0uSj1vFP-A5WtN2b1A/s1600/reanal_1977021412.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="256" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyppcvNrlxD9kI5EOs-1g_qZIMbLrr6t8kOf2HYEtlgAkbbospnN9ohJObEyh6ist4DN0jFoCU-AAm4-F6Fqge-PTXirJU1mJ40HvQSi_0ZAyENzBdF6nmiGWGlg0uSj1vFP-A5WtN2b1A/s320/reanal_1977021412.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Now look back to 1977. This image above is reanalysis form NOAA for Feb. 14th 1977. We also saw a large West Coast ridge. 500 mb height levels were likely closer to 578-580 dam!</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzNAmvXvFlcfD08GRHKpHWxVp17xPSzgneA0TwhV_nmv1Hl7O6YFTaqsg5emxH60pgkJL4tVkEDhiQ0E8AXP_aD8Vzy0mJSlk0HQ7_imzYkFa406Ahce-86K_moxZcolPW5-YljBN28Ol_/s1600/nam_pr3_slp_t850_nw_5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzNAmvXvFlcfD08GRHKpHWxVp17xPSzgneA0TwhV_nmv1Hl7O6YFTaqsg5emxH60pgkJL4tVkEDhiQ0E8AXP_aD8Vzy0mJSlk0HQ7_imzYkFa406Ahce-86K_moxZcolPW5-YljBN28Ol_/s320/nam_pr3_slp_t850_nw_5.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Today's 850 mb temperatures (about 4,000ft in elevation) are running near 9 degrees Celsius. Bringing that air mass to the surface of the valley floor with condensing and warming, we are likely going to see some upper 70s today. </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
Robert Elvingtonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00496807094727050039noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2720218995495947518.post-70556175357085418052013-02-13T10:34:00.001-08:002013-02-13T10:47:56.330-08:00Anomalous Warmth Followed by A Wet & Cold System Tuesday<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
The pattern the first 6 weeks of 2013 has been large blocking highs over the Northstate with weak systems every 10 days or so. The latest ridge of high pressure continues to sit and amplify through the end of this work week.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4pvGraAzuUYZWgZTUfFaJizIrgs9raYIMCoGQdJ-8nFdFn3DnX_MeeP4pkir1cf8dx7RcFfR9p8B_lpZMpWodUratyT3ghYyb5BebRHsusNiHpp0gya7z_DrRyFd3PMYwnORvjG4Zr1PT/s1600/gfs_t2m_anomf_west_12.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4pvGraAzuUYZWgZTUfFaJizIrgs9raYIMCoGQdJ-8nFdFn3DnX_MeeP4pkir1cf8dx7RcFfR9p8B_lpZMpWodUratyT3ghYyb5BebRHsusNiHpp0gya7z_DrRyFd3PMYwnORvjG4Zr1PT/s320/gfs_t2m_anomf_west_12.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
(A look at Friday's anomaly afternoon highs.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
You can see 10-20 degrees above normal highs)</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfzuXlWjFMIwh3I0UlO0fSiJ1AyAj8P1PohwkFbpxkOzfoP6t7iIKyl1oYFa8kyOJNI_i4-CaEsxviWIgmyTKLN-3lQorl2-9tVHz7CN7h-_ptO1aLxmmyMtrrNGLG7dGVRRyyliBVkrzq/s1600/ensplume_small.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfzuXlWjFMIwh3I0UlO0fSiJ1AyAj8P1PohwkFbpxkOzfoP6t7iIKyl1oYFa8kyOJNI_i4-CaEsxviWIgmyTKLN-3lQorl2-9tVHz7CN7h-_ptO1aLxmmyMtrrNGLG7dGVRRyyliBVkrzq/s320/ensplume_small.gif" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
The last 40 days the MJO has moved from phase 4 to 5 to 6 to 7 to 8 to 1 and now situated in Phase 2. In the next few days the MJO index will move into phase 3 which is our wettest phase of the 8. The MJO is one the biggest players in West Coast weather.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZzDaHV4oK496t2uF3KApyM41DAlh7JqrNzNWKP4d8ID7oWhZE-RjCMt3i0_r6rTa7-g2Hghozmqop1IZBE81p0EmMls1XdQr0B3cExrZAdLW4ZNANY-L93zQuQCf-H1XS8NJKGlGwCcF0/s1600/combined_image.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="235" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZzDaHV4oK496t2uF3KApyM41DAlh7JqrNzNWKP4d8ID7oWhZE-RjCMt3i0_r6rTa7-g2Hghozmqop1IZBE81p0EmMls1XdQr0B3cExrZAdLW4ZNANY-L93zQuQCf-H1XS8NJKGlGwCcF0/s320/combined_image.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Here's a look at the all 8 phases compared to climate averages. And you can clearly see how Phase 3 easily outweighs the other 7.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjURZBYbv421rW8u0gfn3CyosSQEAedfPA2rlO3Xi08ct3XWtwBR5_yZi5R-8FbebdO2aZt8MYk333tFDfNVuU6pOL6deqdW-1FUjIaLGk_-eCwJF-BelHi6dpWfw3yHK-A-fNyIF6vrASK/s1600/500vty_f150_bg_US.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjURZBYbv421rW8u0gfn3CyosSQEAedfPA2rlO3Xi08ct3XWtwBR5_yZi5R-8FbebdO2aZt8MYk333tFDfNVuU6pOL6deqdW-1FUjIaLGk_-eCwJF-BelHi6dpWfw3yHK-A-fNyIF6vrASK/s320/500vty_f150_bg_US.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Our next system (pictured above) will rotate down from out of the North, Northwest Monday night and into Tuesday morning. That trajectory is not the wettest route but this system will tap into a .80" PWAT plume (maybe under modeled at this time)</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmQGh3nKNca038c685HiE_-O8zWSc2VWCPTXC6vp9No2gwDgRooMPiBJAUCzt_JmsPMm-1rqYEy0Z0tRhyt7w-kYDcTfXhaFIFvaHdDJaeesEnvQgNJQx07lOb0Ik3Ll92UIGwBa10gTHc/s1600/gfs_pwat_mslp_west_52.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmQGh3nKNca038c685HiE_-O8zWSc2VWCPTXC6vp9No2gwDgRooMPiBJAUCzt_JmsPMm-1rqYEy0Z0tRhyt7w-kYDcTfXhaFIFvaHdDJaeesEnvQgNJQx07lOb0Ik3Ll92UIGwBa10gTHc/s320/gfs_pwat_mslp_west_52.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
You can see the moisture tap out of the southwest with PWAT values (again maybe under represented) approaching .80" values.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhTiby1mAiA_XSmhA-SVxSJ9GutG2cYSuW9OFzda6iroPdpSFpbeSsBGfHrpKfCqhGtXe0jPEeA8EjRoH6mnxVv1Oebk092Wf3_WWJBypNyUQ1mKsnjwUAeSyc1R_M5oMHCuUL5-ta3oUG/s1600/gfs_op_apcp_f150_sw.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhTiby1mAiA_XSmhA-SVxSJ9GutG2cYSuW9OFzda6iroPdpSFpbeSsBGfHrpKfCqhGtXe0jPEeA8EjRoH6mnxVv1Oebk092Wf3_WWJBypNyUQ1mKsnjwUAeSyc1R_M5oMHCuUL5-ta3oUG/s320/gfs_op_apcp_f150_sw.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
GFS modeled precipitation by 10:00am next Tuesday morning. 850 mb temperatures would promote snow levels around 3,000ft and dropping.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsCwz4dDTOprehyDbDyvhyphenhyphenvv60HmbLH4Z6S__VSENdNnEOiQ9Sldam7A8rCKyTj0FFNENhPswOM7Uvs2kG6CCLSBFdZCvUZ-T14BzOi1-Cxhd8TlFifiCVDY1FbApxtkJCNizYMcAYhBRI/s1600/gfs_op_apcp_f156_sw.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsCwz4dDTOprehyDbDyvhyphenhyphenvv60HmbLH4Z6S__VSENdNnEOiQ9Sldam7A8rCKyTj0FFNENhPswOM7Uvs2kG6CCLSBFdZCvUZ-T14BzOi1-Cxhd8TlFifiCVDY1FbApxtkJCNizYMcAYhBRI/s320/gfs_op_apcp_f156_sw.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
GFS modeled precipitation by 4:00 pm on Tuesday, most of the Northstate under mountain snow and valley rain.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1Em4V1yX2Y9IBajWrZgFl-ghT350OD-BYUt9RpEHV85oftP9peWTL6CvTlYiWp2mcIJX4WoCd7-mpuIqbd5_OsQfq2Ushbxnd1LX6WALTnG7eYT8TkH-6NAzchwGzmwtkYCezUnOm7LWm/s1600/gfs_3hr_snow_acc_west_59.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="247" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1Em4V1yX2Y9IBajWrZgFl-ghT350OD-BYUt9RpEHV85oftP9peWTL6CvTlYiWp2mcIJX4WoCd7-mpuIqbd5_OsQfq2Ushbxnd1LX6WALTnG7eYT8TkH-6NAzchwGzmwtkYCezUnOm7LWm/s320/gfs_3hr_snow_acc_west_59.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Accumulated snow with Tuesday's system. This is extremely low-res modeling since we are still 6 days out. Look for better resolution and accuracy once we get within the range of the higher resolution forecast models.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpa-YT8JDEN5ZV1sHRKYpcG9AWgxz_cI8V8HT2b3aBUZ-kVWOULLC8Pj4RuMeTMEDIjkFVCKheTEpSKLwRag3CPXsvrW6quT8uLYBWePKaw8jtRmGo6SGlUNRtH23KP1aVYuYUhND_M3AZ/s1600/gfs_total_precip_west_29.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpa-YT8JDEN5ZV1sHRKYpcG9AWgxz_cI8V8HT2b3aBUZ-kVWOULLC8Pj4RuMeTMEDIjkFVCKheTEpSKLwRag3CPXsvrW6quT8uLYBWePKaw8jtRmGo6SGlUNRtH23KP1aVYuYUhND_M3AZ/s320/gfs_total_precip_west_29.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Again extremely low-res modeling but you get the idea with total precipitation too. Of course this image above is if everything fell in the form of rain. I would expect maybe around a .50"of valley rain, unless we see the development of thunderstorms which would bump these totals.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />Robert Elvingtonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00496807094727050039noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2720218995495947518.post-50993255099270414262013-01-21T10:37:00.001-08:002013-01-21T10:39:50.957-08:00Quiet Pattern Shifts To Slightly ActiveFor the last three weeks, thanks to a dampening MJO pattern and "Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event", the West has for the most part been situated under either amplified ridging or dry troughing.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJ6T-hksuVhSVznmps1wacsZGQnmm3SPDv-phwa8BlgVFTlu2ECTQv4NYbvNTafJ6Mqs6QNsgz01Esx3-IekBDpK0CZOq2yby4Eyn2O7pOPQiOHkvO8VBajGUAQ3DsllnClukzLH6Bj_ra/s1600/ensplume_small+(1).gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJ6T-hksuVhSVznmps1wacsZGQnmm3SPDv-phwa8BlgVFTlu2ECTQv4NYbvNTafJ6Mqs6QNsgz01Esx3-IekBDpK0CZOq2yby4Eyn2O7pOPQiOHkvO8VBajGUAQ3DsllnClukzLH6Bj_ra/s320/ensplume_small+(1).gif" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
The MJO (past and forecasted above) is now entering a somewhat amplified Phase 7. For the last 3-4 weeks we went from no MJO to the very dry Phase 5 and 6 and now into Phase 7.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZCm5__4uLHRJmMZKkDgsq2nrlZVbGGQ2c809nrY8u6RZObEiUpr8eYHAsYMBKYf_PrtAQ8PoEG4o7eRNd6dWZCZbp5LUBchtThMhmDz7jy6ExXbkdtYhFMwqhBKCFFaXPsZLGZDc87-Qp/s1600/combined_image+(1).png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="235" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZCm5__4uLHRJmMZKkDgsq2nrlZVbGGQ2c809nrY8u6RZObEiUpr8eYHAsYMBKYf_PrtAQ8PoEG4o7eRNd6dWZCZbp5LUBchtThMhmDz7jy6ExXbkdtYhFMwqhBKCFFaXPsZLGZDc87-Qp/s320/combined_image+(1).png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Take a look at the anomalies above for all 8 phases of the MJO. Though not a soaking Phase, Phase 7 is a wetter pattern than the very dry phase 6-7, historically.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Something interesting that has been ingested in the models in the last 48 hours, is Air Force Flight Recon. data. Flights went out in the Pacific to sample the southern stream of the jet stream.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
From HPC......</div>
<em style="background-color: #fbfdfe; font-family: tahoma, helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 19px; text-align: start;"><strong>ENOUGH SUPPORT/EVIDENCE DURING THE LAST 48<br />HOURS TO REQUEST A SERIES OF NOAA G4 WINTER RECON FLIGHTS TO<br />SAMPLE THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC BETWEEN HAWAII AND ALASKA.</strong></em><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<em style="background-color: #fbfdfe; font-family: tahoma, helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 19px; text-align: start;"><strong><br /></strong></em></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: start;">
<span style="font-family: tahoma, helvetica, arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 19px;">This extra and more accurate data has changed model output drastically for both Wednesday's system and this coming Weekend's system.</span></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: start;">
<span style="font-family: tahoma, helvetica, arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 19px;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiw55dGg__gaFOmxFfXChX1f8Q9UB0jd4lr8oIUpLQHKXgDznR_zvUJ4bNqs99mJKAdes439nKBWZlkV_t1Qpf3v-5FQRAMhGSLw0W6EYwQMyYdz6CJBC-V-ywUpgI8WmHorSFlEuN8xcqf/s1600/mgWeb_WRF_20130121-150000_ASW_ECONUS_F00610000_PwinterThickness_R12km.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiw55dGg__gaFOmxFfXChX1f8Q9UB0jd4lr8oIUpLQHKXgDznR_zvUJ4bNqs99mJKAdes439nKBWZlkV_t1Qpf3v-5FQRAMhGSLw0W6EYwQMyYdz6CJBC-V-ywUpgI8WmHorSFlEuN8xcqf/s320/mgWeb_WRF_20130121-150000_ASW_ECONUS_F00610000_PwinterThickness_R12km.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Though not strikingly wet, Wednesday's system is now trending much wetter than a nearly dry system seen just 36 hours ago.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6HVaN9wS23ct1l45hpkPzOV_mgIe0-8c0LqBSwkvkDcY50a2mqsc76v2vmX9pQoso2PDJY6bbcJyqd96O2RvimFKv3-JNplx6cB96XJyTQBjnDmZRM9niJvYh7q7VNBwCTpZSO4EDjzZC/s1600/500z_f138_bg_NA.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6HVaN9wS23ct1l45hpkPzOV_mgIe0-8c0LqBSwkvkDcY50a2mqsc76v2vmX9pQoso2PDJY6bbcJyqd96O2RvimFKv3-JNplx6cB96XJyTQBjnDmZRM9niJvYh7q7VNBwCTpZSO4EDjzZC/s320/500z_f138_bg_NA.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
The image above is the Euro forecast model's output for Saturday's system. You can see a positively tilted trough about to slam in to Northern California. This should supply at least enough energy for scattered showers and storms, if not some sort frontal precipitation shield. Something to watch the next 5 days.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: start;">
<span style="font-family: tahoma, helvetica, arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 19px;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />Robert Elvingtonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00496807094727050039noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2720218995495947518.post-83219039187576198772013-01-08T10:04:00.003-08:002013-01-08T10:11:21.500-08:00Wednesday's System & The Warm Weather Next Week<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
After the wet and wild November and December, January for the most part continues to be relatively quiet. Yes every few days or so we see a weak system but rain and snow totals for the most part remain marginal.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_WQSDHlmSSRx6jxzo305uhmtVNMuWFCTaNNUt4JhPAlDkUTpzW9M6SNa1z1b49pV_E6ihJATrkb8al4aRGgi_XJ4YY_XITaaTkKhCMTm0JGnMkRT4YhKcxxbJB1iedkCDTfSYdltziPze/s1600/500vty_f030_bg_US.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_WQSDHlmSSRx6jxzo305uhmtVNMuWFCTaNNUt4JhPAlDkUTpzW9M6SNa1z1b49pV_E6ihJATrkb8al4aRGgi_XJ4YY_XITaaTkKhCMTm0JGnMkRT4YhKcxxbJB1iedkCDTfSYdltziPze/s320/500vty_f030_bg_US.png" width="320" /></a></div>
Tomorrow's system (Wednesday), pictured above, is a positively tilted trough diving in from out of the north, northwest. I drew the center of the axis to show you how it is tipping over (positively tilted). Typically with these types of troughs, the moisture tap is weak and therefore precipitation amounts are low. We look for neutral to negatively tiled troughs for the bigger and wetter storms. This will however bring in some much colder air though.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmZfLBx7RkmwdT-0mM9RZFS_z9GpFSxIIOj78FApson8kjxpjJWRSQGZ7mtxpHMxM06GAyO7gmaycdW0ExqwsEu5rZ8VII95kH1OTgtXwAmADdMULBJD9HGmwxm5RueZpm8ypss7eYAq7j/s1600/d12_fill.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="239" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmZfLBx7RkmwdT-0mM9RZFS_z9GpFSxIIOj78FApson8kjxpjJWRSQGZ7mtxpHMxM06GAyO7gmaycdW0ExqwsEu5rZ8VII95kH1OTgtXwAmADdMULBJD9HGmwxm5RueZpm8ypss7eYAq7j/s320/d12_fill.gif" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Besides the typical orographic aided areas, the Northstate will only see from a .10" of rain for the valley and .25-.50" of precipitation for the mountains. Snow levels will be around 2000', dropping as the system progresses with cold air filtering in behind the initial front. </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhReeS6GmP8nJdeE1h1ayFdXoC1EOyOx4UJCfRJhG-guH44PwMIKwB0jDrQS_iGmBzotrbfVSJV1hK1lOpI-XrFU6mhhbZwZ7xQ-nNb3t8gR8hbRrYUDll-cdlE9lDcMFe7wJcIdeIPuph/s1600/mgWeb_WRF_20130108-120000_ASW_ECONUS_F00323000_PwinterThickness_R12km.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhReeS6GmP8nJdeE1h1ayFdXoC1EOyOx4UJCfRJhG-guH44PwMIKwB0jDrQS_iGmBzotrbfVSJV1hK1lOpI-XrFU6mhhbZwZ7xQ-nNb3t8gR8hbRrYUDll-cdlE9lDcMFe7wJcIdeIPuph/s320/mgWeb_WRF_20130108-120000_ASW_ECONUS_F00323000_PwinterThickness_R12km.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
At 12:30 tomorrow afternoon you can see the initial band of precip working through the Northstate. </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYftHC2xMWWIofdKIS7kuN0AKFFD_URjN_JgmwDV43mZoDZXMsBunv_Pi453BCEyJgFUh0sROJCLak-DTz3d8V5iFfd53OmikZLOjHNZ5cESBoVxADBkx19SEXDQeFPy7LPJP4y4HlhQ-A/s1600/mgWeb_WRF_20130108-120000_ASW_ECONUS_F00363000_PwinterThickness_R12km.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYftHC2xMWWIofdKIS7kuN0AKFFD_URjN_JgmwDV43mZoDZXMsBunv_Pi453BCEyJgFUh0sROJCLak-DTz3d8V5iFfd53OmikZLOjHNZ5cESBoVxADBkx19SEXDQeFPy7LPJP4y4HlhQ-A/s320/mgWeb_WRF_20130108-120000_ASW_ECONUS_F00363000_PwinterThickness_R12km.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
By 4:30 tomorrow afternoon all of the precipitation has already eroded out of the valley and remains only in the foothills and mountains.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAAjtTOzvNHxkzP-vSbkRCScHuaWn6IIAAvCZr3HYRbrSkTpsWDGoKQadajyNysXuvCe7IWlQhBGZ2cJZb3TCKE0wBvWy5LXsHNYTSYoBCc_osHrzOMlfPSoLYF_UvdKsOqp6RC81Rz2XS/s1600/mgWeb_WRF_20130108-120000_ASW_ECONUS_F00680000_PwinterSnow_R12km.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAAjtTOzvNHxkzP-vSbkRCScHuaWn6IIAAvCZr3HYRbrSkTpsWDGoKQadajyNysXuvCe7IWlQhBGZ2cJZb3TCKE0wBvWy5LXsHNYTSYoBCc_osHrzOMlfPSoLYF_UvdKsOqp6RC81Rz2XS/s320/mgWeb_WRF_20130108-120000_ASW_ECONUS_F00680000_PwinterSnow_R12km.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
The image above is the accumulated snowfall by tomorrow night. A lot of locations see snowfall but accumulations for the most part, very light.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Now lets take a look at the big picture.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAMUXLZkDD6iNY7XDml88RvJHT8kj_2y5-uyKg-YNQk2uvrz2ppDWYzAEdYBZbDQKIsne56o_RaTfxwPM2EFXq-_DHRkoFQ2ZsYBu4I1e0xPKmki4tgCUzrZl4U4Ld84ZOYPat7M4tI6qM/s1600/nino.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="221" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAMUXLZkDD6iNY7XDml88RvJHT8kj_2y5-uyKg-YNQk2uvrz2ppDWYzAEdYBZbDQKIsne56o_RaTfxwPM2EFXq-_DHRkoFQ2ZsYBu4I1e0xPKmki4tgCUzrZl4U4Ld84ZOYPat7M4tI6qM/s320/nino.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
What once was looking like an El Nino winter (last summer) has quickly faded and now transitioning into a possible weak La Nina. But even the global climate models erode it away by this spring.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1OjpLtypjynk_Qf3lrLSQGQJThBNB2BI8m8lEmY3IH2pEu4q8h2-2DNlZIbq4J52mKToj5pMCmozAnSU_msBYh72SShRKc_bnQqLsXEpYOSm9Zo3GeYid2a5JHGjUkVL1FSTCdVGqJemh/s1600/10mb9065.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="192" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1OjpLtypjynk_Qf3lrLSQGQJThBNB2BI8m8lEmY3IH2pEu4q8h2-2DNlZIbq4J52mKToj5pMCmozAnSU_msBYh72SShRKc_bnQqLsXEpYOSm9Zo3GeYid2a5JHGjUkVL1FSTCdVGqJemh/s320/10mb9065.gif" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Something very interesting has happened in the last 1-2 weeks. It is called a "Stratospheric Warming Event" it is a very complicated process that I'm and still scratching my head at but basically it means a shift in the polar vortex. What is happening is the polar vortex is splitting and shift to another part of the Northern Hemisphere This will likely bring much colder air to the lower 48 in the next couple of weeks.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhl4hmwLW9KoD_72SZYZjd4bsLrshFRUcc6L3TXVGp3zuF_ZULNGDfuCSogwkfL581fCjTAiGAtu2KJ24tkC2xSRxiQqlhBh1hAWl8u69jCBpahRhJSx_22T7TDpp5bCLHip_ss8HI3PbGh/s1600/glbz700MonInd2.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="247" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhl4hmwLW9KoD_72SZYZjd4bsLrshFRUcc6L3TXVGp3zuF_ZULNGDfuCSogwkfL581fCjTAiGAtu2KJ24tkC2xSRxiQqlhBh1hAWl8u69jCBpahRhJSx_22T7TDpp5bCLHip_ss8HI3PbGh/s320/glbz700MonInd2.gif" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
This could possibly create a double "Rex Block." 1 block off the coast of the western North America and the other over Greenland. Take a look at the image above of one operational forecast for February. The big globs of red are prolonged ridging of high pressure. This will then force all the cold air to pool and slide down into the lower 48 of the United States. The question is how close is the block to the Northstate? Too close and we'll be mild and dry, while the rest of the US freezes.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdLq6fu3agG5MrWReyvgIuq24m5vrgMKBaNw2bgRy0SOwjX-ir2XhFq9lP4lS0KB2H8vWX7AeE05HZWySlb2On1mc5k8mBndaUfVOe3Ba5lss89WOQ6p_eC9F-23Oih3NN7X6-QOy1HxFK/s1600/cd108.211.228.35.4.10.51.40.prcp_.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="293" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdLq6fu3agG5MrWReyvgIuq24m5vrgMKBaNw2bgRy0SOwjX-ir2XhFq9lP4lS0KB2H8vWX7AeE05HZWySlb2On1mc5k8mBndaUfVOe3Ba5lss89WOQ6p_eC9F-23Oih3NN7X6-QOy1HxFK/s320/cd108.211.228.35.4.10.51.40.prcp_.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Lets take a look at a previous "Stratospheric Warming Event." In December of 1984 prior to the "Event" you can see the west was cold and the east was warm. </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzoQRm2v6NydgZDkU1wLkiYgH6Uhd400kNkqyS34n9KBZJkQYKPUGG-JzGoVlp_u0F4Em7xR7ZIIhYWc74AiS6uelNXwDDwQC_nIVc6xst4LCt6a1-yyRQQnadZ_wzB55KKg151_AFMULd/s1600/cd108.211.228.35.4.10.52.27.prcp_.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="296" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzoQRm2v6NydgZDkU1wLkiYgH6Uhd400kNkqyS34n9KBZJkQYKPUGG-JzGoVlp_u0F4Em7xR7ZIIhYWc74AiS6uelNXwDDwQC_nIVc6xst4LCt6a1-yyRQQnadZ_wzB55KKg151_AFMULd/s320/cd108.211.228.35.4.10.52.27.prcp_.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
After the "Event" you'll notice how the Lower 48 was well below normal for the month of January in 1985.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_IpTCR0m9fxn28s3qHBwJaJ1lsUI-vCp1CMTbmwMx9NGWa1m-7POqgo6lRQXhC9akC03q1pOUREmG4mrziO0cg1LQvcKsSvG7HDeTOGJ8513GjHdABg_H95Rs1cF63CV3ttHxWHtTG8Wt/s1600/500z_f192_bg_NA.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_IpTCR0m9fxn28s3qHBwJaJ1lsUI-vCp1CMTbmwMx9NGWa1m-7POqgo6lRQXhC9akC03q1pOUREmG4mrziO0cg1LQvcKsSvG7HDeTOGJ8513GjHdABg_H95Rs1cF63CV3ttHxWHtTG8Wt/s320/500z_f192_bg_NA.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Back to our weather. Next week we'll see the ridge developing off the coast and moving towards the Northstate. You can see the cold air starting to slide down from out of the Arctic, Canada and approaching the lower 48.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgv-w3uY_kwTjF05TI-MtACkCbzCrUqtL6rgwZZ0-l0B-Ij2r7N5C1rjt61WfsMRyrZMLzqJOr6CpA3s3kcAoEq2StxEQleU-Oy2sGO3oaTiaVo7Hr4GkT4yyJRjSDWB1Wxv1MbHZL9a_og/s1600/500z_f252_bg_NA.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgv-w3uY_kwTjF05TI-MtACkCbzCrUqtL6rgwZZ0-l0B-Ij2r7N5C1rjt61WfsMRyrZMLzqJOr6CpA3s3kcAoEq2StxEQleU-Oy2sGO3oaTiaVo7Hr4GkT4yyJRjSDWB1Wxv1MbHZL9a_og/s320/500z_f252_bg_NA.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
By next Friday the ridge is still over the Northstate and Rockies and east enter a deep freeze.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYjTGY_4FvLZnHDQY_8LOCdMZ3U6uTHYIFCQi_FKznhvOcz7cFRpFyPYazHH3-FUkL16gj4gXMj_bilPqZLnP4lIslHdBvCRhSTKdApyOwhHrnxH1J0Ea7nGzbubFRfesO2VSmQXtNQxQp/s1600/newestmjo.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYjTGY_4FvLZnHDQY_8LOCdMZ3U6uTHYIFCQi_FKznhvOcz7cFRpFyPYazHH3-FUkL16gj4gXMj_bilPqZLnP4lIslHdBvCRhSTKdApyOwhHrnxH1J0Ea7nGzbubFRfesO2VSmQXtNQxQp/s320/newestmjo.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
The MJO wave continue to strengthen this week. However, it is entering a dry, cooler phase for Northern California. You'll notice the forecast (yellow/green line) is moving into a Phase 5 and 6 in the near future.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_k4o2YjHTY3reXWKW7GcgOgiZbm4wJPpdJYZlbTHuNKfnDXBzhd6w59xGGWWNPbQB4PqvOi_W9nt-37HLosbpSLKBSuB_4ydEHWTBnxcpbOHZerO257dWm5EKzP-W4hafweHMsLlRNrq-/s1600/mjoprec.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="209" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_k4o2YjHTY3reXWKW7GcgOgiZbm4wJPpdJYZlbTHuNKfnDXBzhd6w59xGGWWNPbQB4PqvOi_W9nt-37HLosbpSLKBSuB_4ydEHWTBnxcpbOHZerO257dWm5EKzP-W4hafweHMsLlRNrq-/s320/mjoprec.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Comparing the winter anamolies for a phase 5 and 6 shows a dry phase. The image above has all 8 phases. Look for phase 5 and 6 and map and you'll notice the brown over Northern California, which is drier than average.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYLpYISpvOYpA7WAPTiSnOVXRWunUDqBUUUQCyY0FL6WBHNPbTwqyY06My3XxORLBaZJDvJPnzNUrc27IOn-66GrqhOSenHqDk4ehGrzgzXUAB3TrbsQ95T7ZSS123uS75Tzp9fJ_-sKH4/s1600/mjotemps.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="208" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYLpYISpvOYpA7WAPTiSnOVXRWunUDqBUUUQCyY0FL6WBHNPbTwqyY06My3XxORLBaZJDvJPnzNUrc27IOn-66GrqhOSenHqDk4ehGrzgzXUAB3TrbsQ95T7ZSS123uS75Tzp9fJ_-sKH4/s320/mjotemps.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Phase 5 and 6 are actually cooler phases for Northern California so we'll see how it interacts with the "Stratospheric Warming Event."</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
Robert Elvingtonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00496807094727050039noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2720218995495947518.post-70954492894336891842012-12-27T21:23:00.001-08:002012-12-27T21:31:40.088-08:00Quiet Pattern With a Few Weak Systems<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgob-kau_gn7dduZqFCU3UEfk4k_qkkP20dFm1Bhr2Bs4LjxVCViNfosEAgYrBtueMjs2qiS1WJg6iFW4YMzvSpfEzsJxQPXEqd1hI8mcsON8oeu1uyiB9yKa1hnIGjaMIU29bmZC9l1G7t/s1600/SnowDepth_2011VS2012.png.png.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgob-kau_gn7dduZqFCU3UEfk4k_qkkP20dFm1Bhr2Bs4LjxVCViNfosEAgYrBtueMjs2qiS1WJg6iFW4YMzvSpfEzsJxQPXEqd1hI8mcsON8oeu1uyiB9yKa1hnIGjaMIU29bmZC9l1G7t/s320/SnowDepth_2011VS2012.png.png.png" width="320" /></a></div>
After what has been a very active last 30 days we for the most part, take a break. Every few days or so we will see a weak system that will try to move in, likely dropping .10" of precip for the valley or less.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1KEY72XqOJuaQhk-OdIk-zA99B-K1HwLiEcYjW8J8TJudUTkh7j6o0Awd9V4pIzfT8uRQK9EhZaIFCLeDsy015EpSlmPLkFi_LGQfS__xznMN8ceuzJ10kDtcTZyGKXNacLx6v6BmmYSa/s1600/gfs_op_apcp_f30_us.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1KEY72XqOJuaQhk-OdIk-zA99B-K1HwLiEcYjW8J8TJudUTkh7j6o0Awd9V4pIzfT8uRQK9EhZaIFCLeDsy015EpSlmPLkFi_LGQfS__xznMN8ceuzJ10kDtcTZyGKXNacLx6v6BmmYSa/s320/gfs_op_apcp_f30_us.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Tomorrow's system will hug the coast, split and head south. Moisture tap will be extremely light so only expecting scattered snow showers in the mountains and a shower or two sneaking down to the valley.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhj03Zcyn0Ueh2CoYNM3USHG-GpAnSBQHuzXabC-QekhTLXVzKMTtvdIuEn2f5LrR2rYVaWXjdcTbpkEI_V0LaFIKu8t3RnR5Sk1ZoQiO3RIpIy4gvUeUZlZi6h3e4_cgYvPOP4LSFjSA_X/s1600/gfs_op_apcp_f102_us.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhj03Zcyn0Ueh2CoYNM3USHG-GpAnSBQHuzXabC-QekhTLXVzKMTtvdIuEn2f5LrR2rYVaWXjdcTbpkEI_V0LaFIKu8t3RnR5Sk1ZoQiO3RIpIy4gvUeUZlZi6h3e4_cgYvPOP4LSFjSA_X/s320/gfs_op_apcp_f102_us.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Another weak system will move through Monday. This is more of a hybrid slider system that will likely bring more wind than rain for most of the Northstate. The backside of the storm will be a north to south jet axis, that will tighten the surface pressure gradient. Expect a slight breeze out of the north.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgy7fB9wWXvoKqpM15RWRHJ6O-4H4AHcl5a1kPJ91m6YAYsjm7NS_O6OROvKtRM5b4FGeYEsIIgzVVIiFfpaSpVQCF6dWCQCLPuQUzlkzd172fYfEWHZJQd2QeioSRRRsRiWIxT3cU7z0lG/s1600/gfs_op_apcp_f150_us.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgy7fB9wWXvoKqpM15RWRHJ6O-4H4AHcl5a1kPJ91m6YAYsjm7NS_O6OROvKtRM5b4FGeYEsIIgzVVIiFfpaSpVQCF6dWCQCLPuQUzlkzd172fYfEWHZJQd2QeioSRRRsRiWIxT3cU7z0lG/s320/gfs_op_apcp_f150_us.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
And again another weak system Wednesday evening that will likely hug the coast and dip south. 3 very weak systems that are all starved for moisture over the next 7 days.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigILhwck7DwERVu0QK-kYW4lgM_prs6r9k9IjdxAm6yydGAiVo0RH5lY3ncqSa0AQdQBaMiSuuJl0K4zzz6f21hWm3rrKEuf_MeFd-YaVArCV4FWoyOJWIkMwG4MWGHTNTXTzYK2E70ooZ/s1600/new.pna_index_ensm.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigILhwck7DwERVu0QK-kYW4lgM_prs6r9k9IjdxAm6yydGAiVo0RH5lY3ncqSa0AQdQBaMiSuuJl0K4zzz6f21hWm3rrKEuf_MeFd-YaVArCV4FWoyOJWIkMwG4MWGHTNTXTzYK2E70ooZ/s320/new.pna_index_ensm.gif" width="240" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
After what seemed like an eternity. the Pacific North American index (teleconnection we look at for blocking in the North Central Pacific) finally went positive after a month and a half negative. Due to less blocking, big powerful troughs are unable to be nudged down from the Gulf of Alaska to the Northstate.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHKNZTJkX-13CvExRw6hNQzXZbGoVteJM-5A1Nb9pcbQdgsCROmfk4uT1TEDUyIocZCCi-mJEFCrMDlIfAKa73XrOhpls1s52thNDMzRhesWhm3LjW-yDTN9Zxx2bLbAtV7xvu14xn0Fss/s1600/ao.sprd2.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHKNZTJkX-13CvExRw6hNQzXZbGoVteJM-5A1Nb9pcbQdgsCROmfk4uT1TEDUyIocZCCi-mJEFCrMDlIfAKa73XrOhpls1s52thNDMzRhesWhm3LjW-yDTN9Zxx2bLbAtV7xvu14xn0Fss/s320/ao.sprd2.gif" width="240" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
The Arctic Oscillation continues to push positive and looks to remain positive through the extended period. AO is a slight measure of how wavy and troughy the jet stream is. The more negative the more rosby waves can build up on the jet stream, bringing us a better shot at big storms.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnEdj-lqP0X8wlU-fjbOxJVJihSOTpcDRUFzF-9rwcsrIcBpsIHvksHoQ606vlAZkmXNSU7-PbQhOtQAnznkW4xJCk0-FCXQdKnN66J2Zqklfe_D_oI6a0JColKxBdrpPTrmPUzTg2lfZw/s1600/ensplume_small.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnEdj-lqP0X8wlU-fjbOxJVJihSOTpcDRUFzF-9rwcsrIcBpsIHvksHoQ606vlAZkmXNSU7-PbQhOtQAnznkW4xJCk0-FCXQdKnN66J2Zqklfe_D_oI6a0JColKxBdrpPTrmPUzTg2lfZw/s320/ensplume_small.gif" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
And finally the Madden Julian Oscillation continues to be nonexistent. A very low amplitude wave that is forecasted to meander in the Phase 4/5, which is unfavorable pattern for West Coast storms. So for now things quiet down.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />Robert Elvingtonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00496807094727050039noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2720218995495947518.post-57235305416689565742012-12-19T14:37:00.002-08:002012-12-19T14:52:09.336-08:00Significant Mountain Snow EventThough Northern Valley snow still remains a challenge and uncertain, there is certainty that the Northern Shasta, Northern Trinity and Southern Siskiyou mountains will see a tremendous amount of snow.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHnEepYftcN2DK16zWulViOFmJahoNogzPqA3SEWcT6ubA909tDnFBT9bwC-G0JeEnpE0297s9nQ1wVm0w1dYVkP_wd5L7TUGR0a3gs2jIYduM4V8iW6iVGwBhKvbmXfgTfyDHSpONeqZB/s1600/RSA_QPF_Days1-5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHnEepYftcN2DK16zWulViOFmJahoNogzPqA3SEWcT6ubA909tDnFBT9bwC-G0JeEnpE0297s9nQ1wVm0w1dYVkP_wd5L7TUGR0a3gs2jIYduM4V8iW6iVGwBhKvbmXfgTfyDHSpONeqZB/s320/RSA_QPF_Days1-5.png" width="204" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
The image above is the 5-day QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) from the NWS. Basically this means if everything that were to fall in the form of liquid or if you converted it to rain this is how much precipitation you could expect. And as you can see Northern Shasta, Southern Siskiyou county get painted with 7-8" of liquid. Forecast rain-to-snow ratios are right around 1:11" averaged out for the entire event. So you're talking 77-88" of snow. This is likely overdone but fascinating none the less.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghu1EH7r5M2H91s_dnppoKK8MYPY6KYB9DIpm7n3H638BygZpYJcNtReYaXDBQTuW8Loq5XCqJGUZmUMG48KT8Z5IGJ36Uq9obUCSguIhDkQbueH8Yng4lcfUiM9eED2NKFJgnf_cf_UhD/s1600/p120i+(1).gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="239" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghu1EH7r5M2H91s_dnppoKK8MYPY6KYB9DIpm7n3H638BygZpYJcNtReYaXDBQTuW8Loq5XCqJGUZmUMG48KT8Z5IGJ36Uq9obUCSguIhDkQbueH8Yng4lcfUiM9eED2NKFJgnf_cf_UhD/s320/p120i+(1).gif" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
As you can see HPC is also leaning between 7-9" of QPF too.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEho7kBQ3Hu8MgmYUPgx-lc8KCCCS3MD8qGa_BuObnfYU5MLhx8vn2rPG1pO0-iZ9Z6LbJi_n2dnq1XvPCwXpTZsyFINAwnyEtO1kClv0PaTzjoD0CKkEpdiH9LC1WE33_cLlwYgN3gJZSg-/s1600/mgWeb_WRF_20121219-180000_ASW_ECONUS_F00720000_PwinterSnow_R12km.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEho7kBQ3Hu8MgmYUPgx-lc8KCCCS3MD8qGa_BuObnfYU5MLhx8vn2rPG1pO0-iZ9Z6LbJi_n2dnq1XvPCwXpTZsyFINAwnyEtO1kClv0PaTzjoD0CKkEpdiH9LC1WE33_cLlwYgN3gJZSg-/s320/mgWeb_WRF_20121219-180000_ASW_ECONUS_F00720000_PwinterSnow_R12km.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Here is the 72 hour snowfall accumulation map. Unfortunately it only goes out until 10:00am Saturday. But right in that bullseye I showed you above you can see where our in-house model is picking up 60-72" of snow in the Mount Shasta City area through Saturday morning, not including the rest of Saturday's or Sunday storm too.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>HOW ABOUT THE VALLEY?</b></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
This is the million dollar question. In the last 18 hours, forecast models have drastically slowed down the initial storm. This will play a major role in the chances for valley snow. </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEia-mktLTND2H3k5BcsGsW2EvRgA7o_G90NOBkh_EYZ5tqv66jxg-x-0dQ7uv8FQ7oEPnDjcxc4pGpmoPFSlFPHU40CZWLoIeuECERCvawhQnoVUz2TgfttELfPNbyg7zGqAWm_w182fZbh/s1600/mgWeb_WRF_20121219-180000_ASW_ECONUS_F00190000_PsatVisible_R4km.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEia-mktLTND2H3k5BcsGsW2EvRgA7o_G90NOBkh_EYZ5tqv66jxg-x-0dQ7uv8FQ7oEPnDjcxc4pGpmoPFSlFPHU40CZWLoIeuECERCvawhQnoVUz2TgfttELfPNbyg7zGqAWm_w182fZbh/s320/mgWeb_WRF_20121219-180000_ASW_ECONUS_F00190000_PsatVisible_R4km.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
At 5:00 am Thursday morning there is actually quite the clearing on the forecast Satellite over Redding. So we could see some decent radiational cooling.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIWiVZ7S-Sspxcq2pMAEDgMddrD_2yEB8hAYznt4X_l1tiFcVJ2nPrfKlRU5aQ7dTIhgy9IbctcjDJYlTHWehzurlm27cEmYJuPEAiaZDwGf0AgWKGeOaUg3K1ly07AeHrjBfupitw69Hx/s1600/mgWeb_WRF_20121219-180000_ASW_ECONUS_F00220000_PsatVisible_R4km.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIWiVZ7S-Sspxcq2pMAEDgMddrD_2yEB8hAYznt4X_l1tiFcVJ2nPrfKlRU5aQ7dTIhgy9IbctcjDJYlTHWehzurlm27cEmYJuPEAiaZDwGf0AgWKGeOaUg3K1ly07AeHrjBfupitw69Hx/s320/mgWeb_WRF_20121219-180000_ASW_ECONUS_F00220000_PsatVisible_R4km.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
By 8:00am Thursday morning you can see some decent cloud cover has moved over about Red Bluff and North. So maybe enough cloud cover to lock the cold air in place.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
The Biggest challenge of the Forecast is the winds. We are expecting strong south winds for most of the valley. IF the winds make it into Redding then our chances for accumulating snow are greatly reduced to near 0.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Here some forecasts of the winds tomorrow morning.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFNl-SRMS98e6mczGzTvBFW2A17S7pvX5zBGu1ubOgXMeqVqXHFQLK7QZnFnk_DIdNTx7i2aSCK1k81C1Ch9UbARH3btAyLgGSB3LUaRHhm14DJZKhzFcIKMp059xo9QRYwPPE2R4LquwG/s1600/mgWeb_WRF_20121219-150000_ASW_ECONUS_F00283000_PgeneralSfcWind_R12km.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFNl-SRMS98e6mczGzTvBFW2A17S7pvX5zBGu1ubOgXMeqVqXHFQLK7QZnFnk_DIdNTx7i2aSCK1k81C1Ch9UbARH3btAyLgGSB3LUaRHhm14DJZKhzFcIKMp059xo9QRYwPPE2R4LquwG/s320/mgWeb_WRF_20121219-150000_ASW_ECONUS_F00283000_PgeneralSfcWind_R12km.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
As of 11:30 tomorrow morning the strong south winds are south and southeast of Redding, unable to penetrate the cold air-mass.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
The rest of the day the winds try to increase near Redding but still the south winds are not as strong as the winds south and southeast of Redding.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisGoUlpk57kfnzWkO3SFGhpzsfUm_lFPWIRlZoJAGrYOLL0t6V6ZWfQ51qs3okTai8QMnTyBbdvYQCr52mRa_yypOyY8RjJocc-dog3bbNE3z5jqmDzULRn2xY3e9wAyNYo6TjiHTdcjzq/s1600/mgWeb_WRF_20121219-150000_ASW_ECONUS_F00313000_PgeneralSfcWind_R12km.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisGoUlpk57kfnzWkO3SFGhpzsfUm_lFPWIRlZoJAGrYOLL0t6V6ZWfQ51qs3okTai8QMnTyBbdvYQCr52mRa_yypOyY8RjJocc-dog3bbNE3z5jqmDzULRn2xY3e9wAyNYo6TjiHTdcjzq/s320/mgWeb_WRF_20121219-150000_ASW_ECONUS_F00313000_PgeneralSfcWind_R12km.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCFmCCsh2NpWdUboR9t6puNrfrUwm4rXE3wSKcHN1f0GV6yyVDh6o-wjcSdgHle1rGw3mRBOp_8O5tWp7rMYBvr8L-3UzjBTiSGABdqp5vD5iECT0a-eL5yKXAxVQAXA139tUEIooU30P2/s1600/mgWeb_WRF_20121219-150000_ASW_ECONUS_F00323000_PgeneralSfcWind_R12km.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCFmCCsh2NpWdUboR9t6puNrfrUwm4rXE3wSKcHN1f0GV6yyVDh6o-wjcSdgHle1rGw3mRBOp_8O5tWp7rMYBvr8L-3UzjBTiSGABdqp5vD5iECT0a-eL5yKXAxVQAXA139tUEIooU30P2/s320/mgWeb_WRF_20121219-150000_ASW_ECONUS_F00323000_PgeneralSfcWind_R12km.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmVG5Ks4enlJBXx_VTZ1yKRUcc2sOGrY_QgefiYzm4FpRBZG_acr2yLQXxYn4JQLuGQeCy9kft5z5RBH3Bz9-tblUlVamO1njOjSjuR34sDpLLrCmA_UdKYzhvWE55D99J6mDNlcOgX1QN/s1600/mgWeb_WRF_20121219-150000_ASW_ECONUS_F00340000_PgeneralSfcWind_R12km.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmVG5Ks4enlJBXx_VTZ1yKRUcc2sOGrY_QgefiYzm4FpRBZG_acr2yLQXxYn4JQLuGQeCy9kft5z5RBH3Bz9-tblUlVamO1njOjSjuR34sDpLLrCmA_UdKYzhvWE55D99J6mDNlcOgX1QN/s320/mgWeb_WRF_20121219-150000_ASW_ECONUS_F00340000_PgeneralSfcWind_R12km.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggtkr1mkHWvnVakvYwbWI2BeN15w93HCYRHNR52oStUyzPeZvL_eBEg8iCbqMuwnwFbFc7-wGtDwlOgubyrSJ-4hmgyxM0Irrxa7F_F9eiTXvkAWwQmt5vLAftZLjdogT4lSIJ_Xk_1zuE/s1600/18z.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="189" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggtkr1mkHWvnVakvYwbWI2BeN15w93HCYRHNR52oStUyzPeZvL_eBEg8iCbqMuwnwFbFc7-wGtDwlOgubyrSJ-4hmgyxM0Irrxa7F_F9eiTXvkAWwQmt5vLAftZLjdogT4lSIJ_Xk_1zuE/s320/18z.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
The image above is the Forecast Skew T sounding for Redding at 10:00 am tomorrow morning. The surface air column is still not fully saturated. But the 0-degree wet bulb height is 377ft, which means that at that time if enough precipitation were to fall it would be 32 degrees F or 0 degrees C at 377ft elevation. *****The wet bulb temperature is the temperature the air would fall to at full saturation (through evaporative cooling) However models continue to show precipitation not moving in until after 12:00pm.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMe5yMwFdMiw4vGp-orsVJoLcc-P2RHsy9EJa3D_90L7QWllzbWzZjpHxjYpeMeptC8SDqA3tzdiuC79YepBF8wFCd7lXtQautqgj3kxOwKEtnn1XhyphenhyphenWHcYgC3ofz6U4V1Wc41qlqDiL9R/s1600/21z.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="182" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMe5yMwFdMiw4vGp-orsVJoLcc-P2RHsy9EJa3D_90L7QWllzbWzZjpHxjYpeMeptC8SDqA3tzdiuC79YepBF8wFCd7lXtQautqgj3kxOwKEtnn1XhyphenhyphenWHcYgC3ofz6U4V1Wc41qlqDiL9R/s320/21z.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
By 1:00pm you can now see that air still not fully Saturated and the 0-degree Wet Bulb temperature has now risen to over 1300 ft.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Just because it is not freezing at the surface (Redding's elevation is between 500-900ft) doesn't mean and can't snow. Redding this past Saturday saw several hours of snow with a temperature of 34 degrees. Also if the precipitation is hard enough it can bring the cold air down with it and not have enough time to melt. So overall it appears that for Redding to see snow the earlier the better, which hasn't been in our favor the last few model runs and we are running out of time.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvx1mzW2ouUfZJp4CjXJxMLagj-CLAR72vKVp982zrxLyz-cxCmqs2vfwjB4IptUoztwHtiC7-uQiZk5VdWktvLPGBicihVYohsY5IwO3vH5JSiM6130xCdwl67HNY9X9pvQwLmPVy0xCy/s1600/mgWeb_WRF_20121219-180000_ASW_ECONUS_F00343000_PwinterThickness_R12km.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvx1mzW2ouUfZJp4CjXJxMLagj-CLAR72vKVp982zrxLyz-cxCmqs2vfwjB4IptUoztwHtiC7-uQiZk5VdWktvLPGBicihVYohsY5IwO3vH5JSiM6130xCdwl67HNY9X9pvQwLmPVy0xCy/s320/mgWeb_WRF_20121219-180000_ASW_ECONUS_F00343000_PwinterThickness_R12km.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
At 8:30 Thursday evening you can see that the rain/snow line is hovering right on or just slightly north of Redding.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
That's what makes this forecast so difficult because the rain/snow line is going to hover right over Redding through tomorrow evening, tomorrow night. Eventually Redding will switch over to rain, washing away any accumulations that we could possibly see.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Stay tuned, things seem to change from one model run to another.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<h3>
</h3>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />Robert Elvingtonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00496807094727050039noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2720218995495947518.post-157658652768134862012-12-14T10:39:00.001-08:002012-12-15T09:01:27.210-08:00A Look At Snow Chances SaturdayIf you have been watching our news over the last 18 hours you have probably seen and heard about very low snow levels by Saturday. Of all the forecast models we use, our in-house (the one you see on tv) is probably the most aggressive with low snow.<br />
<br />
First of all this is a fairly weak system so total precipitation is fairly low. But for the mountains rain-to-snow ratios will be high so snow can add up with little moisture to work with.<br />
<br />
Lets set the stage.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgckMPGrs7ub5BD1mncGmJ0SoohCd-ifPaFzYb6Mwv6XIKvIjBRiOe4-iWw9xPV-9BBGbGfdaico3RgaydM_LbyNiRGW0YMGFB-fiQqz2tjoB3RfWQIS0M_sefQ8ey5lcRsC_5-DcyFsDrB/s1600/mgWeb_WRF_20121214-150000_ASW_ECONUS_F00223000_PsatVisible_R12km.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgckMPGrs7ub5BD1mncGmJ0SoohCd-ifPaFzYb6Mwv6XIKvIjBRiOe4-iWw9xPV-9BBGbGfdaico3RgaydM_LbyNiRGW0YMGFB-fiQqz2tjoB3RfWQIS0M_sefQ8ey5lcRsC_5-DcyFsDrB/s320/mgWeb_WRF_20121214-150000_ASW_ECONUS_F00223000_PsatVisible_R12km.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
(clear skies with clouds approaching from the west at 5:30 am Sat. morning)</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
From this afternoon and onward, skies will begin to clear. Skies will stay clear through a good chunk of the night time hours. This clearing will allow for temperatures to drop through radiative cooling, including the valley, overnight.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcIdC89G2HqD2-5ZV4OkXrzAsuskavKAOtrgWY_41UoFfO0r1isfYu1LcwDA-KD8uz80bgI31ERyW1hBOkhAK44psZDuCFG278rQPdFTrs5N-3xfxbuxl9kqwiRxEsqqsVV-x13DekNoax/s1600/mgWeb_WRF_20121214-150000_ASW_ECONUS_F00250000_PsatVisible_R12km.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcIdC89G2HqD2-5ZV4OkXrzAsuskavKAOtrgWY_41UoFfO0r1isfYu1LcwDA-KD8uz80bgI31ERyW1hBOkhAK44psZDuCFG278rQPdFTrs5N-3xfxbuxl9kqwiRxEsqqsVV-x13DekNoax/s320/mgWeb_WRF_20121214-150000_ASW_ECONUS_F00250000_PsatVisible_R12km.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
(thick clouds in place by 8:00 am Sat. morning)</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
These clouds will then lock in a lot of cold/dense air in place</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1S7Tw5o8_3UTpiNpk-QoFkxHA3fvoOSj0CUghhNVqVYIW5QKiLOrCs04hesNjdk_r5yn3wwBfGLs78cT93SHs8spKiKh0qySmz6yh3rVEeLpuo4HVUfhUZoufJ-BF2QjC__wPFn825wQb/s1600/cold.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1S7Tw5o8_3UTpiNpk-QoFkxHA3fvoOSj0CUghhNVqVYIW5QKiLOrCs04hesNjdk_r5yn3wwBfGLs78cT93SHs8spKiKh0qySmz6yh3rVEeLpuo4HVUfhUZoufJ-BF2QjC__wPFn825wQb/s320/cold.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
As of 6:30 am you can see most of the Northern Tip of the valley (Red Bluff and north) between 32-35 degrees.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Lets take a look at the upper levels.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-j1yV2JYh4tjbX_5TiKGhQUgDkumaC5uQE4riM_KiH3cnsi3NSOdB-RHjZ7-0DFjY3KSAwH62010jZIzMuc_MCuMGsYtHo3TQx73lmpN8XVNNk3nPaBegAkV7PmMiN63MuNXP8pq43yfp/s1600/7332.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-j1yV2JYh4tjbX_5TiKGhQUgDkumaC5uQE4riM_KiH3cnsi3NSOdB-RHjZ7-0DFjY3KSAwH62010jZIzMuc_MCuMGsYtHo3TQx73lmpN8XVNNk3nPaBegAkV7PmMiN63MuNXP8pq43yfp/s320/7332.gif" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
(forecast skew-t sounding of Redding at 10:00 am Sat. from GFS model)</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
The first thing you will notice is the surface air temperature is slightly above freezing, right around 34 to 35 degrees. Next thing you'll notice is that the surface air column is very dry. You have to go up to about 700 mb (nearly 10,000ft altitude) before you get saturation. ***I will note that the GFS is much slower with the precipitation than other models. SO with this dry air in place we will receive cooling from evaporation as precipitation falls into the dry air column. We will also get slight cooling as snowflakes fall into this column. As the snow flakes melt, it cools the air-mass, kind of like dropping ice cubes into a room-temperature glass of water. Heat is pulled out of the glass of water to melt the ice cubes (exothermic reaction)</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQRAlnDw278-TxasJqivlIB1K0otyE8EkfK8x8bTEXrxzYOw2MeWkXMZFlOIwMaCw679zZpZ7iLweLToQ7ha92QVIscDCS6QHyj6iTkrVfIthDweTNGm-l7x3-_h6ZPCkBXQv9OTBTnDXZ/s1600/mgWeb_WRF_20121214-150000_ASW_ECONUS_F00270000_PwinterThickness_R4km.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQRAlnDw278-TxasJqivlIB1K0otyE8EkfK8x8bTEXrxzYOw2MeWkXMZFlOIwMaCw679zZpZ7iLweLToQ7ha92QVIscDCS6QHyj6iTkrVfIthDweTNGm-l7x3-_h6ZPCkBXQv9OTBTnDXZ/s320/mgWeb_WRF_20121214-150000_ASW_ECONUS_F00270000_PwinterThickness_R4km.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
At 10:00 am you can see snow moving into most of the foothills and mountains.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgVzZPfmrnXQU8dmE2GZYDXTl476WpVRsrWNryqS4mM_Gc0Lv8PKJ0VhQXt6PRFrd3UBO5XPKIWJbYVU42Wig6Bn_MlaroGkYFK3St0BomdiJwYONfUUUhGXw230pA3HG9QrqGtrSOVCu7/s1600/mgWeb_WRF_20121214-150000_ASW_ECONUS_F00280000_PwinterThickness_R12km.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgVzZPfmrnXQU8dmE2GZYDXTl476WpVRsrWNryqS4mM_Gc0Lv8PKJ0VhQXt6PRFrd3UBO5XPKIWJbYVU42Wig6Bn_MlaroGkYFK3St0BomdiJwYONfUUUhGXw230pA3HG9QrqGtrSOVCu7/s320/mgWeb_WRF_20121214-150000_ASW_ECONUS_F00280000_PwinterThickness_R12km.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
By 11:00 am precipitation has made it down to the rest of the valley.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
At this time most if not all of the snow should stay around 1000ft but it is possible we could get a few hours of snow in northern most tip of the valley floor, including Redding.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
This is a warm advection rain event so as precipitation continues the air column will slowly warm. This will eventually raise the snow levels to above 1000ft as event prolongs. Overriding precipitation events over cold air damming are extremely tough to forecast and we will continue to monitor snow levels through the next 36 hours.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVvBqaHHJ7NlCQHhePjxTBHsccUNKBdu-0K_QGEiFKbKJDFi81amQM_gTB-10Xm6htYBgLcb_UsbhkAjIbyj4y3TWMCB3XerGqou9efDtPjdHS-GREYsrwQrFW9j1kfNsrrAl7lb62sKs8/s1600/mgWeb_WRF_20121214-150000_ASW_ECONUS_F00720000_PwinterSnow_R12km.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVvBqaHHJ7NlCQHhePjxTBHsccUNKBdu-0K_QGEiFKbKJDFi81amQM_gTB-10Xm6htYBgLcb_UsbhkAjIbyj4y3TWMCB3XerGqou9efDtPjdHS-GREYsrwQrFW9j1kfNsrrAl7lb62sKs8/s320/mgWeb_WRF_20121214-150000_ASW_ECONUS_F00720000_PwinterSnow_R12km.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
(accumulated snowfall through 7:00am Monday)</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Heaviest accumulations remain above 3,000 ft with this weekend's system.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
I expect a Winter Weather Advisory to be issued by the NWS sometime later today.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Rob</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />Robert Elvingtonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00496807094727050039noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2720218995495947518.post-1915737131773955282012-12-05T20:13:00.002-08:002012-12-05T20:33:02.478-08:00Quiet For NowFor the last week the Northstate has been bombarded by long lived troughing on the west coast which tapped into deep tropical moisture.<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_KKgn-HJTT1cagpljnwgChrvyVGuzK7p4ythq-TbpLjLvuphSFThsUytneC0MJGDY26KUIwqr9tiBdxv-mFmVDFIw0uvISRMcqiOja8_l8PtS9Cb_31MXABKVtHQy8slhuFk7B4r1KwEi/s1600/500z_f060_bg.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_KKgn-HJTT1cagpljnwgChrvyVGuzK7p4ythq-TbpLjLvuphSFThsUytneC0MJGDY26KUIwqr9tiBdxv-mFmVDFIw0uvISRMcqiOja8_l8PtS9Cb_31MXABKVtHQy8slhuFk7B4r1KwEi/s320/500z_f060_bg.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<b>(last week)</b></div>
<div>
A strong blocking high in the North Central Pacific pushed cold air down from the Arctic region allow for a very strong upper level low to sit and spin just off the coast of California,Oregon and Washington.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiwb4iQnzbNfbFJimqUSh2VF4-9cm1LIYtq2dXD9Vdc7juT-O0ZS_4xP5Iu7K1VveJHAqMvGgY855BU3iBnyV3G3VeaRCePxSw__bMaFsiFwCRgDrZprHr7yspaNCmCxcDp-z5a2YuNrm6/s1600/m500z_f108_bg_NA.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiwb4iQnzbNfbFJimqUSh2VF4-9cm1LIYtq2dXD9Vdc7juT-O0ZS_4xP5Iu7K1VveJHAqMvGgY855BU3iBnyV3G3VeaRCePxSw__bMaFsiFwCRgDrZprHr7yspaNCmCxcDp-z5a2YuNrm6/s320/m500z_f108_bg_NA.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<b>(next week)</b></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
The next 5-7 days the blocking high will shift closer and closer to the West Coast. This will set up a strong northwest jet ending any chance for rain, mainly just a gusty north wind event on Sunday.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Let's Take a Look at the Teleconnections.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiu0qji10jcDgcH5nJpdmL53oiwlrb7l5nPAQS_79RDzJHgSRhxhzWP2ADIGh1PBOclUZeHLrYQ0MKpcBVICXPwCL2lBQciR5GWcJQgYxTr4E9ji2JpVNXZvfbsdkK-nQxqR1430YlFLnCo/s1600/pna.sprd2.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiu0qji10jcDgcH5nJpdmL53oiwlrb7l5nPAQS_79RDzJHgSRhxhzWP2ADIGh1PBOclUZeHLrYQ0MKpcBVICXPwCL2lBQciR5GWcJQgYxTr4E9ji2JpVNXZvfbsdkK-nQxqR1430YlFLnCo/s320/pna.sprd2.gif" width="240" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<b>PNA</b></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
For the last month the PNA oscillation as been quite negative. Which typically signals a blocking high in the North Central Pacific and in the fall/winter a better chance for a stormy pattern on the West Coast. You'll notice now the shift is from negative to neutral ending our month long block.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0dmoxAPEjVjG5OBNbQ9z-YH8E7FsjU9FK8DO4Beju2yclh2Pjj7tlMM8aR-oJl0v6qWi6TAQ6-BlJUiF-R0_E8DRzLGnsydqFxUriKVHV4zhL2NxJ9h6zvvYXkzKB8dYq_4B-KnC6p9KQ/s1600/ao.sprd2.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0dmoxAPEjVjG5OBNbQ9z-YH8E7FsjU9FK8DO4Beju2yclh2Pjj7tlMM8aR-oJl0v6qWi6TAQ6-BlJUiF-R0_E8DRzLGnsydqFxUriKVHV4zhL2NxJ9h6zvvYXkzKB8dYq_4B-KnC6p9KQ/s320/ao.sprd2.gif" width="240" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<b>AO</b></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
The AO is the measurement of how wavy an active the Jet Stream is in the Fall and Winter. The more negative the better chance for strong troughs to dive down into the lower 48. So we are forecasting a strong negative AO. Yet it looks like the Rockies and east will see most of this cold air.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZe7vT-GmhUGIw0hBzIm9E-IUQKIYA93TlC3PNzYVfUFZvGvmaWLcTQfq28znA4CG4kVswYPYar-i5wBWuyUGXdCQUwVMfuq9BMuCX6HNCNFYjMzY-iUNNWmO6CXodOr_xGhY4rKyNb8I4/s1600/nao.sprd2.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZe7vT-GmhUGIw0hBzIm9E-IUQKIYA93TlC3PNzYVfUFZvGvmaWLcTQfq28znA4CG4kVswYPYar-i5wBWuyUGXdCQUwVMfuq9BMuCX6HNCNFYjMzY-iUNNWmO6CXodOr_xGhY4rKyNb8I4/s320/nao.sprd2.gif" width="240" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<b>NAO</b></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
NAO is a good signal for blocking in the North </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Atlantic. Typically in the Fall/Winter a strong negative NAO means a blocking high over Greenland which then allows for troughing over the East.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJx_-AYhTyUYSFD8E5Um_Da996A_tbT-njw3ZIs4fTA55eunJPsqU9FX-BZP0idK1V-SiG63N3qyTNFIso_Kj8faV2PvkOcBMyc_mRc-fmMGfMELGyt6r71Pn-N1vU6Acaq4UsmKIYVHN3/s1600/500z_f120_bg_US.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJx_-AYhTyUYSFD8E5Um_Da996A_tbT-njw3ZIs4fTA55eunJPsqU9FX-BZP0idK1V-SiG63N3qyTNFIso_Kj8faV2PvkOcBMyc_mRc-fmMGfMELGyt6r71Pn-N1vU6Acaq4UsmKIYVHN3/s320/500z_f120_bg_US.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<b>Next Week</b></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
So there you go, a fairly cold air outbreak next week for a good chunk of the US minus the West Coast. Strong oscillations except for the weakening of PNA.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Until some of the blocks shift and we see the MJO pick back up, the Northstate looks quiet the next 1-2 weeks.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
</div>
Robert Elvingtonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00496807094727050039noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2720218995495947518.post-55934642450784731162012-11-29T11:08:00.002-08:002012-11-29T12:08:45.591-08:00High Impact Storm Today Through Sunday<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEeepIvE3WkOkGygI0JRhXzh7ve1Bo9xuzMsuD8F1gBBZTMOXadCUzhySMgwy6Spe8bwjTe68np1WSrKfSp9iuOi1CscgEiyk7YCHrExZ3ov7P-mM8FgwSN8WhXTUYr-9lIURaOkAS_Ztl/s1600/RSA_QPF_Days1-5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEeepIvE3WkOkGygI0JRhXzh7ve1Bo9xuzMsuD8F1gBBZTMOXadCUzhySMgwy6Spe8bwjTe68np1WSrKfSp9iuOi1CscgEiyk7YCHrExZ3ov7P-mM8FgwSN8WhXTUYr-9lIURaOkAS_Ztl/s320/RSA_QPF_Days1-5.png" width="198" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Here is a look at the NWS in-house model for precipitation through the next 5 days. Heavy totals showing up in Central, Northern Shasta County and another huge bullseye in East Butte, Western Plumas county.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Totals could approach 15-20+ inches in some of these locations.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizIelwcM03d7cqfkD4yf93TfzhEn881gJ7Dg9FL-AKgklud_WwW-lt9GSh-OxxxVlj_dRjJk9b-4Ka_5TMvaa_eFONsAXRuBi98fuLziUFvFebt6mIN85UTjjwhtCjkSFXQezun8XNnqcf/s1600/mgWeb_WRF_20121129-150000_ASW_ECONUS_F00073000_PwinterThickness_R12km.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizIelwcM03d7cqfkD4yf93TfzhEn881gJ7Dg9FL-AKgklud_WwW-lt9GSh-OxxxVlj_dRjJk9b-4Ka_5TMvaa_eFONsAXRuBi98fuLziUFvFebt6mIN85UTjjwhtCjkSFXQezun8XNnqcf/s400/mgWeb_WRF_20121129-150000_ASW_ECONUS_F00073000_PwinterThickness_R12km.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
In-house model showing the heavy rain stalling over the Northstate around 2:30 this afternoon</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8EAQvs8v0OGqEPw9z9fDeMG-cko9TxdgNbBtsuK3DU6hVaxu5rbH_IiB5gLbKFwiPLsJK-BJ6DiFSSZLHl-fsS8-p1X5MLP6HG1T6kKw-pk3BmWkB8scoDwrtkN-x9pRn7ge4FP4QuCcJ/s1600/mgWeb_WRF_20121129-150000_ASW_ECONUS_F00153000_PwinterThickness_R12km.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8EAQvs8v0OGqEPw9z9fDeMG-cko9TxdgNbBtsuK3DU6hVaxu5rbH_IiB5gLbKFwiPLsJK-BJ6DiFSSZLHl-fsS8-p1X5MLP6HG1T6kKw-pk3BmWkB8scoDwrtkN-x9pRn7ge4FP4QuCcJ/s320/mgWeb_WRF_20121129-150000_ASW_ECONUS_F00153000_PwinterThickness_R12km.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Heavy Rain still sitting still at 10:30 pm tonight.</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgen0DjO82AoS4NOonuQxfMenMyMkcSPeL5O4VTZM3FECMm9os4uyWUf7GvW-wT-vWwfgJriZbBj_KCmPS9qke-nWoMba4BBKC3i3raLEvsyK4aDq6HaftgXFYYp6ovx5JsIgFF_QE-WRyu/s1600/mgWeb_WRF_20121129-150000_ASW_ECONUS_F00183000_PwinterThickness_R12km.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgen0DjO82AoS4NOonuQxfMenMyMkcSPeL5O4VTZM3FECMm9os4uyWUf7GvW-wT-vWwfgJriZbBj_KCmPS9qke-nWoMba4BBKC3i3raLEvsyK4aDq6HaftgXFYYp6ovx5JsIgFF_QE-WRyu/s320/mgWeb_WRF_20121129-150000_ASW_ECONUS_F00183000_PwinterThickness_R12km.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
At 1:30 am tomorrow morning heavy rain still training over the Northstate</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjW6O1mJ0z5-Kzil_PNOqYjI6oo9GgJ-W3y0GoacO5G-Ng9RZ_W-0jBHV93lwh-IyVPhQ9AMuJMShtLH4W2Yr4tRPJ66AEhmVeCW6Kn-rqaR8w27ET1WTNA01zuTbDTUXZMm01ZOtkwYtFc/s1600/mgWeb_WRF_20121129-150000_ASW_ECONUS_F00203000_PwinterThickness_R12km.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjW6O1mJ0z5-Kzil_PNOqYjI6oo9GgJ-W3y0GoacO5G-Ng9RZ_W-0jBHV93lwh-IyVPhQ9AMuJMShtLH4W2Yr4tRPJ66AEhmVeCW6Kn-rqaR8w27ET1WTNA01zuTbDTUXZMm01ZOtkwYtFc/s320/mgWeb_WRF_20121129-150000_ASW_ECONUS_F00203000_PwinterThickness_R12km.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
3:00 am heavy rain not budging much</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbjT66FVGkd1r8xk3PSnKF4-THFEAhdgLsj-jAsKODKNoTKVLHM6TvSXFSxo-sAgp6pt-1vJygX_ZnMJnJ92eaVleDvI_dMc2_HID2V6FARndmSXWKavfoVZh_sJ9FBpd6nOUn241mUfcA/s1600/mgWeb_WRF_20121129-150000_ASW_ECONUS_F00230000_PwinterThickness_R12km.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbjT66FVGkd1r8xk3PSnKF4-THFEAhdgLsj-jAsKODKNoTKVLHM6TvSXFSxo-sAgp6pt-1vJygX_ZnMJnJ92eaVleDvI_dMc2_HID2V6FARndmSXWKavfoVZh_sJ9FBpd6nOUn241mUfcA/s320/mgWeb_WRF_20121129-150000_ASW_ECONUS_F00230000_PwinterThickness_R12km.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
6:00 am heavy rain still in the Northstate</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMCf3y8Ius4CC9xV-HNb_YW8YWr1EztiXbFyduhGsKTJ406DnpEKKHmSWYEzFY3NgDmRYsWzcNqvcEQ-gWmx6QseV7j1ilFbS1XltvXv21hFXPbK7DOrdqGbEoa4CMhKmtFQFsQKLEoFMh/s1600/mgWeb_WRF_20121129-150000_ASW_ECONUS_F00260000_PwinterThickness_R12km.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMCf3y8Ius4CC9xV-HNb_YW8YWr1EztiXbFyduhGsKTJ406DnpEKKHmSWYEzFY3NgDmRYsWzcNqvcEQ-gWmx6QseV7j1ilFbS1XltvXv21hFXPbK7DOrdqGbEoa4CMhKmtFQFsQKLEoFMh/s320/mgWeb_WRF_20121129-150000_ASW_ECONUS_F00260000_PwinterThickness_R12km.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Finally by 9:00 am the rain begins to let up for the Northstate.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCG-N0n_twPapTmEfBad_1Zr_pSEy20bR71-ai2onioK64Jfe21LuJ48dOPltzENgBu5mZVaXkhA53ywHqoQN5bxUbKSgNgSXElLDKSTxM_ylPmr7YhU7Gi2Uxtm0wZkgZIUcrxeJ3s-WK/s1600/hires_uv900_slp_nw_26.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCG-N0n_twPapTmEfBad_1Zr_pSEy20bR71-ai2onioK64Jfe21LuJ48dOPltzENgBu5mZVaXkhA53ywHqoQN5bxUbKSgNgSXElLDKSTxM_ylPmr7YhU7Gi2Uxtm0wZkgZIUcrxeJ3s-WK/s320/hires_uv900_slp_nw_26.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
This image above is the forecast of 900mb winds at 1:00 am tomorrow morning. That bullseye is in the Northern half of the valley floor. 900mb is about 3000ft in altitude. So we have to do a reduction in the winds to the surface because of the friction of the earth. The rule of thumb is 15%. So if we were to take 73 knots which is about 84 mph and reduce is by about 15%, you're talking winds near 70 mph at the surface. I think we will stay below that but something to keep a close eye on.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGuAnAnjBORPGkbfnqQ668zb7LHLaecMb6_GCW0VmuGT37vEiJFstSfHDLD2ceUqV2Zydn4mdpbtMQrijR-X2YbJp_FYT3j_GrS5nmLh_pNOX-tHcfxhxLMBVzd7g6HTRPCryriKygYZei/s1600/SFC_WS10m_15_D3.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="284" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGuAnAnjBORPGkbfnqQ668zb7LHLaecMb6_GCW0VmuGT37vEiJFstSfHDLD2ceUqV2Zydn4mdpbtMQrijR-X2YbJp_FYT3j_GrS5nmLh_pNOX-tHcfxhxLMBVzd7g6HTRPCryriKygYZei/s320/SFC_WS10m_15_D3.gif" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
This wrf model shows very strong south winds but below 70mph winds. However, with about 10 hours of heavy rain it is not going to take much to bring down trees in the highly saturated soils.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrc-N3I7KK2puglMN24W5IUFbk2Tf-r_gt3sBVmMd5nPoauZneFz97oZng40jjkWrIZRP0hwkqnULGMiaxhdd4fYnhhHAVASh_KJ-hVW8v0PZ1E1TUbfTpjSHFT6b-lDCnKCpYDfZHOqPb/s1600/gfs_op_apcp_f54_sw.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrc-N3I7KK2puglMN24W5IUFbk2Tf-r_gt3sBVmMd5nPoauZneFz97oZng40jjkWrIZRP0hwkqnULGMiaxhdd4fYnhhHAVASh_KJ-hVW8v0PZ1E1TUbfTpjSHFT6b-lDCnKCpYDfZHOqPb/s320/gfs_op_apcp_f54_sw.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Next storm arrives late Friday night and it will be much weaker than today's. Yet still bringing more unneeded rain to the Northstate.</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPromTemTMxbR9ejbwW7p_PJq7a-nfRqWXuFS7q7MgeGE7uOsx95Xu-kb_20uz7RkgDXwf0ObnZUaTMgOVPW7aWmGEyy3WjXd3R_uTw0G1PSOjZYrPYxWEQ68xv_yAE66I1JqZfMQ0Feiy/s1600/gfs_op_apcp_f72_sw.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPromTemTMxbR9ejbwW7p_PJq7a-nfRqWXuFS7q7MgeGE7uOsx95Xu-kb_20uz7RkgDXwf0ObnZUaTMgOVPW7aWmGEyy3WjXd3R_uTw0G1PSOjZYrPYxWEQ68xv_yAE66I1JqZfMQ0Feiy/s320/gfs_op_apcp_f72_sw.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
The next powerful storm arrives Saturday evening and into the overnight period. Expect another round of very heavy rain and high winds out of the south.</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGKbIU_dnBb9S6lxkNI92Zaqxc9IQZVumDWIqK5LsUL9cwAjYqw4qS17T6tWkPiPMLgkWigdr0v-L2nZI23Q5aTIZp3dgeWbBbfijG8fsr3WVNKfKodRP4G1IQpdSWYAS1WIoiyXjaAAYI/s1600/gfs_op_apcp_f84_sw.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGKbIU_dnBb9S6lxkNI92Zaqxc9IQZVumDWIqK5LsUL9cwAjYqw4qS17T6tWkPiPMLgkWigdr0v-L2nZI23Q5aTIZp3dgeWbBbfijG8fsr3WVNKfKodRP4G1IQpdSWYAS1WIoiyXjaAAYI/s320/gfs_op_apcp_f84_sw.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
By Sunday afternoon the rain finally clears most of the Northstate.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Below is a list of several Sacramento River forecast near and around Red Bluff. ORANGE LINE IS MODERATE STAGE. RED LINE IS FLOOD STAGE. BLUE LINE IS CURRENT. GREEN AND PURPLE IS FORECAST RIVER HEIGHT.<br /><a href="http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/index.php?type=official&zoom_check=zoom&zoom_factor=1&pixel_loc=%3F134%2C194" target="_blank">River Forecast Page</a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEid-_hIKxVWPdIYzmnZwm0iednj-XDCRTRyYMbzg9th_Rz4yNzWsERECjSH4n98vvhDNy6FDvaIACszMboyiuZlP1Y1lDfrjFKNI3Qeg2rKE07ttmAuIskyQ-LcKM5xI-XjJztQeKjHS_50/s1600/bdbc1_rvf.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="306" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEid-_hIKxVWPdIYzmnZwm0iednj-XDCRTRyYMbzg9th_Rz4yNzWsERECjSH4n98vvhDNy6FDvaIACszMboyiuZlP1Y1lDfrjFKNI3Qeg2rKE07ttmAuIskyQ-LcKM5xI-XjJztQeKjHS_50/s320/bdbc1_rvf.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Bend Bridge</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCkZSS-q_UjpVCFOtxXfKeFnsn9pU3bsiSShnuhz4dGLfgMbYCTmcxAqm2L-pRJktl1zyCes8rd-Ykwh__L_nUqFIii13k36s7P8Ag_Ph3HwVywY1htVHUQGrK1kFpEv8MQPHFjicg6c2C/s1600/rdbc1_rvf.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="306" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCkZSS-q_UjpVCFOtxXfKeFnsn9pU3bsiSShnuhz4dGLfgMbYCTmcxAqm2L-pRJktl1zyCes8rd-Ykwh__L_nUqFIii13k36s7P8Ag_Ph3HwVywY1htVHUQGrK1kFpEv8MQPHFjicg6c2C/s320/rdbc1_rvf.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Red Bluff</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoiV_VBni1fOUbJOyfqctNKRSdAyJ28f1v_Ulh7_p6BqEfjKzB-Z9qjgDG-m_kAp81dOgrKbNfZbVUuegE1TTI0Mih0oEqj8ZoSVnzhYEhhqr-zOOhVR4_hyphenhyphenhAIahqJBq3fpZ9YMlDpYNd/s1600/vwbc1_rvf.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="306" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoiV_VBni1fOUbJOyfqctNKRSdAyJ28f1v_Ulh7_p6BqEfjKzB-Z9qjgDG-m_kAp81dOgrKbNfZbVUuegE1TTI0Mih0oEqj8ZoSVnzhYEhhqr-zOOhVR4_hyphenhyphenhAIahqJBq3fpZ9YMlDpYNd/s320/vwbc1_rvf.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Vina Woodson Bridge</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAKf97MPBrr4vZb8mMhkULuR9tAXObc0GLfG99fxRcVvvt4UwAPyCx6ScL6oypPLeVovhVXdcALVfpaG3cCcS7d4pc8R46e1jxcttIqzcOjgxNO0DKcrLEln0Z-ro17ePdfXDGSlNsj2Sf/s1600/tehc1_rvf.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="306" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAKf97MPBrr4vZb8mMhkULuR9tAXObc0GLfG99fxRcVvvt4UwAPyCx6ScL6oypPLeVovhVXdcALVfpaG3cCcS7d4pc8R46e1jxcttIqzcOjgxNO0DKcrLEln0Z-ro17ePdfXDGSlNsj2Sf/s320/tehc1_rvf.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Tehama Bridge, Tehama</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />Robert Elvingtonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00496807094727050039noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2720218995495947518.post-41679880678184581342012-11-26T10:52:00.000-08:002012-11-26T10:52:01.355-08:00SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT THIS WEEK<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
As mentioned since last week we have some very heavy rain heading for the Northstate this week. Model agreement continues to be high so this is shaping into a high confidence event 4- 5 days out. A very strong trough will stall-out off shore, which will in turn tap into a very strong tropical moisture feed. Several impulses of energy will rotate around the trough flinging moisture at the Northstate through next weekend.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTJsPJiZ4dkbHf7RMAf5e2-IA57_HltdZYB2fGUEXZNFb0yvS-KcLmidhJoobqVsGosYf7IcGpfi769I0o9tv8BnxQogArjYczAJrSkqGyAN51ddBHhLOTRsGuNh8qNCQ3Dh_i2MERLl1W/s1600/gfs_total_precip_west_29.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTJsPJiZ4dkbHf7RMAf5e2-IA57_HltdZYB2fGUEXZNFb0yvS-KcLmidhJoobqVsGosYf7IcGpfi769I0o9tv8BnxQogArjYczAJrSkqGyAN51ddBHhLOTRsGuNh8qNCQ3Dh_i2MERLl1W/s320/gfs_total_precip_west_29.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Here's a quick look at the GFS 7 day total precipitation output through next Monday morning. It is easy to see that the mountains locations could easily pick up over the 10+" of rain! Even the valley is approaching over 6-7" in the northern half of the valley!</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2l8ZZZs6EJmoAYAq5rg3AlG08eD4Pr2hRFaQyNDP4w7YBDpDqmHAgjk5k8ylkjYHFPIYsClp2TBV3ZO0OC5Vn0O0EfS21opU3MO2lGkzFeyeREz0I8Iu1g5CS6cFrY-G464WUcaa7n0op/s1600/p120i12.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="239" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2l8ZZZs6EJmoAYAq5rg3AlG08eD4Pr2hRFaQyNDP4w7YBDpDqmHAgjk5k8ylkjYHFPIYsClp2TBV3ZO0OC5Vn0O0EfS21opU3MO2lGkzFeyeREz0I8Iu1g5CS6cFrY-G464WUcaa7n0op/s320/p120i12.gif" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center only forecast total rain out to 5-days. So through 4:00 am Saturday morning you can already see mountain locations seeing 7" based on their forecast. This of course doesn't take into account Saturday and Sunday's rain too.</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtsvnS8L9mHLecU9mu8MDVC8YTBpqSvq3s1CwZOtjzrUjVjZ-qSZCUguldWMenUOBBKkXLPEu2ICMvdvstSKneclY2cbKQoAS5S0uaHbgqZ_NECajWmWoQ4KajbBEjqfnaJdCUkC5Ea8Xe/s1600/nam_namer_048_sim_radar.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtsvnS8L9mHLecU9mu8MDVC8YTBpqSvq3s1CwZOtjzrUjVjZ-qSZCUguldWMenUOBBKkXLPEu2ICMvdvstSKneclY2cbKQoAS5S0uaHbgqZ_NECajWmWoQ4KajbBEjqfnaJdCUkC5Ea8Xe/s320/nam_namer_048_sim_radar.gif" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
The image above is the hires simulated radar of the initial band/cold front slowly moving ashore. This is valid at 4:00 am Wednesday morning. This is actually a hair slower than some other models but it still gives you an idea of the rain coming in.</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEhPp8j1DIy66g91jkkj_hXuAWDPsVrZcJLFK54nxXtlP6ZcxbijzQGtiOoKtC4h4Jas384nVAvOwap5MjTsuuA8ctbNy6IL8ViA6p3sG5aTpdGVg6jqUuNZOTayHqJoEDJDO2_KxxQOme/s1600/gfs_op_apcp_f114_na.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEhPp8j1DIy66g91jkkj_hXuAWDPsVrZcJLFK54nxXtlP6ZcxbijzQGtiOoKtC4h4Jas384nVAvOwap5MjTsuuA8ctbNy6IL8ViA6p3sG5aTpdGVg6jqUuNZOTayHqJoEDJDO2_KxxQOme/s320/gfs_op_apcp_f114_na.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
A wide view of the precipitation coming in and you can see the huge moisture feed going out nearly a 1,000 miles into the subtropics, feeding all the way into the Northstate.</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVMy3duFAnq2mvZ_9Z7SXCfMbfdxGKj5K54eJ94bqXsQCTRP-twMqgGNyITLdgvcrQbLA6yFdVUtZVeQfGb0wtpv3wtQUUUFB-EfseaIPgdQdiLCrTRubz3VnKEIJ4bchFo-8DPLJtJBs8/s1600/mgWeb_WRF_20121126-150000_ASW_ECONUS_F00720000_PwinterSnow_R12km.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVMy3duFAnq2mvZ_9Z7SXCfMbfdxGKj5K54eJ94bqXsQCTRP-twMqgGNyITLdgvcrQbLA6yFdVUtZVeQfGb0wtpv3wtQUUUFB-EfseaIPgdQdiLCrTRubz3VnKEIJ4bchFo-8DPLJtJBs8/s320/mgWeb_WRF_20121126-150000_ASW_ECONUS_F00720000_PwinterSnow_R12km.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
This is the snow accumulation map. This can only go out to 72 hours (through Thursday morning.) You can see only the highest passes getting snow. This will be a fairly warm event. Also the lowest snow levels will likely be found Wednesday into Thursday (possibly down to 5,000ft) before snow levels rise even higher.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0rLn1xKLKd-WigCHlOGb1tldcGzj_2vvNEcHk0poNNoktwLwRVhvF9-6XkRtLzmXmfSGafS-27GvBaDsXLYRIryqEROQXNSMF9PxuFvmcMry_g4b2XU6rL6ppt3fBkCaNuuNjflkv3ep3/s1600/mgWeb_WRF_20121126-150000_ASW_ECONUS_F00693000_PgeneralSfcWind_R12km.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0rLn1xKLKd-WigCHlOGb1tldcGzj_2vvNEcHk0poNNoktwLwRVhvF9-6XkRtLzmXmfSGafS-27GvBaDsXLYRIryqEROQXNSMF9PxuFvmcMry_g4b2XU6rL6ppt3fBkCaNuuNjflkv3ep3/s320/mgWeb_WRF_20121126-150000_ASW_ECONUS_F00693000_PgeneralSfcWind_R12km.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Strong south winds will also be a problem just like last week's storms. With each front that comes in winds will increase out of the south. We may see Wind Advisories issued and even some High Wind Warnings too for the higher passes.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />Robert Elvingtonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00496807094727050039noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2720218995495947518.post-7344051040539805452012-11-22T20:53:00.001-08:002012-11-22T20:53:18.802-08:00Very Active Pattern Next Week<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Only a couple days removed from our last active pattern and we're already tracking the next. We'll do a quick walk through of one operational forecast model (The American GFS) Starting next Wednesday night...</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzkP4YY6WeWYY3QsWKl1OyiOhzSp69Wl5G7bTtcbVEdcY3ymV0RJM62xJiC3dkhSyJkzD9g4HaHcMX6cEAVHLICOrdtWv94-GwPnBXlaZAxv4-vrnyrYUWdFJ7EQMiyqXkYT3JE4CtV23e/s1600/gfs_op_apcp_f150_us.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzkP4YY6WeWYY3QsWKl1OyiOhzSp69Wl5G7bTtcbVEdcY3ymV0RJM62xJiC3dkhSyJkzD9g4HaHcMX6cEAVHLICOrdtWv94-GwPnBXlaZAxv4-vrnyrYUWdFJ7EQMiyqXkYT3JE4CtV23e/s320/gfs_op_apcp_f150_us.png" width="320" /></a></div>
The image above shows the approaching initial cold front. This is valid around 10:00 pm Wednesday night and the rain is starting slide into the folks to the west.<br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRPMBGEII7Bibl2qMeZNjCq5ToH0ERT9oc83jW5PaktfR5oh8bKgyCvyLZiEOCTFfN2oXOKQG7KhNYOQAfYuvDnNywBe4ILdCAZudMuzBJ_tIo60mShtppPVPisgdfF2BLzf8rcEKQdPUU/s1600/gfs_op_apcp_f162_us.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRPMBGEII7Bibl2qMeZNjCq5ToH0ERT9oc83jW5PaktfR5oh8bKgyCvyLZiEOCTFfN2oXOKQG7KhNYOQAfYuvDnNywBe4ILdCAZudMuzBJ_tIo60mShtppPVPisgdfF2BLzf8rcEKQdPUU/s320/gfs_op_apcp_f162_us.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
By 10:00 am Thursday morning the main precipitation shield has moved into the Northstate. This initial wave of rain will bring high snow levels, likely around 7,000 ft.</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcIvj9gQgGVZRrI55S4WifkcgU6uo5NzGnkDWDn58S9xKLwq8qi9eJCB8EjOBvjhVHWcLpDRp2udYdg8vuH_0B-oYgpXndD2ZPJfa8RDX4GRDCiBO61473q7pAuiQgVd5Qsgx4-1z9VZwk/s1600/gfs_op_apcp_f180_us.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcIvj9gQgGVZRrI55S4WifkcgU6uo5NzGnkDWDn58S9xKLwq8qi9eJCB8EjOBvjhVHWcLpDRp2udYdg8vuH_0B-oYgpXndD2ZPJfa8RDX4GRDCiBO61473q7pAuiQgVd5Qsgx4-1z9VZwk/s320/gfs_op_apcp_f180_us.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Fast forward to 4:00 am Friday morning and another heavy line of rain is moving in and snow levels are dropping. At this time snow levels around 5000 feetish</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQITgaqp1MYJuUvcJYSsKbAiRYsO6CqDLJdxAbxb9NYafC0mWV12_-5rRXBy6qen4FY6OgteIFp2rG8j_AprO5MKwTqHX4d-50E_D0DesEMl4BDf0pJILjk1zVYzVyc-4VEQVgRKWJGGVQ/s1600/gfs_op_apcp_f192_us.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQITgaqp1MYJuUvcJYSsKbAiRYsO6CqDLJdxAbxb9NYafC0mWV12_-5rRXBy6qen4FY6OgteIFp2rG8j_AprO5MKwTqHX4d-50E_D0DesEMl4BDf0pJILjk1zVYzVyc-4VEQVgRKWJGGVQ/s320/gfs_op_apcp_f192_us.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
By 4:00 pm Friday snow levels continue to drop with very heavy precipitation continuing to funnel in</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCk2FdkMQffgtkwyFwnILSQSfD6w1E_yLSCWg6fQ7SAFKLIOOQrjKkHckQWix01laDdl2zm8PorlwSMHwr2GOK_5DcF64t2K0Hp_83eLbWTJJPj30I0T8ne1Q5RSRFJcROok4jjeVJLq_Z/s1600/gfs_op_apcp_f204_us.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCk2FdkMQffgtkwyFwnILSQSfD6w1E_yLSCWg6fQ7SAFKLIOOQrjKkHckQWix01laDdl2zm8PorlwSMHwr2GOK_5DcF64t2K0Hp_83eLbWTJJPj30I0T8ne1Q5RSRFJcROok4jjeVJLq_Z/s320/gfs_op_apcp_f204_us.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
Continuing on to 4:00 am Saturday morning and this a very interesting output. Very heavy precipitation with snow levels likely below 4000 ft. So this could have major travel issues on several roadways<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbq3-zxI6yfgj6MJZz4OD-0_ksfDFccIVZvAOLSMP1z63WAwOqDMx49NFHnCU3Gkrcgwdfyz0SilUufxvxrUWoDFaXHua2rMcsdczhmLbOzFiqwQ4yd5wkPfwuUVVIFjP_Lu1sFhR7W92M/s1600/gfs_op_apcp_f228_us.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbq3-zxI6yfgj6MJZz4OD-0_ksfDFccIVZvAOLSMP1z63WAwOqDMx49NFHnCU3Gkrcgwdfyz0SilUufxvxrUWoDFaXHua2rMcsdczhmLbOzFiqwQ4yd5wkPfwuUVVIFjP_Lu1sFhR7W92M/s320/gfs_op_apcp_f228_us.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Finally a slight break in the action 4:00 am Saturday yet you can see more precipitation off to the north heading for the Northstate.</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi12bpNr5RADF94dRnoDmRFRlHd-zO4JNHKRsnMSBkRIt-ErWZiSkV0H2YWmFBkWVDdHxA0z_RrZtH2g7-cUWCVK1Gi1bxvKl6SgzYPCTS46QyG0Im92u8LuB-W-gIQSerJOjLPOfwQsQtR/s1600/gfs_op_apcp_f252_us.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi12bpNr5RADF94dRnoDmRFRlHd-zO4JNHKRsnMSBkRIt-ErWZiSkV0H2YWmFBkWVDdHxA0z_RrZtH2g7-cUWCVK1Gi1bxvKl6SgzYPCTS46QyG0Im92u8LuB-W-gIQSerJOjLPOfwQsQtR/s320/gfs_op_apcp_f252_us.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
By 4:00 am the following Monday morning heavy precipitation moves in with snow levels back above 5000 ft.</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivlw6fhbcBxO9jWILRWjADeF5EjpNqVxwpMESw3PBChYRFFzhyNFrfts3PsyOr2rxYTW9DROrItMsboX0Rp85Dk0N9cG5HEfeDo8o0pQY4az_jmfpFxOarjAMIzAvGlr2elh0ZTlbwc9FD/s1600/gfs_op_apcp_f264_us.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivlw6fhbcBxO9jWILRWjADeF5EjpNqVxwpMESw3PBChYRFFzhyNFrfts3PsyOr2rxYTW9DROrItMsboX0Rp85Dk0N9cG5HEfeDo8o0pQY4az_jmfpFxOarjAMIzAvGlr2elh0ZTlbwc9FD/s320/gfs_op_apcp_f264_us.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
By 4:00 pm more precipitation with snow levels back below 5000 ft</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisaX-Ggh-jg32Yh_NqKzw0Fs8X_3H_naWG3wJflySDXPIE8FFPDpyjDXEuDiywYS2bDNW3nSQ-QX0BFJV2aZARTcc-Y1T1OjanDkiEKtU_93TsYjEwglJJTF-MDWvVeqGwH5TmcR1ke5NT/s1600/gfs_op_apcp_f288_us.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisaX-Ggh-jg32Yh_NqKzw0Fs8X_3H_naWG3wJflySDXPIE8FFPDpyjDXEuDiywYS2bDNW3nSQ-QX0BFJV2aZARTcc-Y1T1OjanDkiEKtU_93TsYjEwglJJTF-MDWvVeqGwH5TmcR1ke5NT/s320/gfs_op_apcp_f288_us.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Even by 4:00 pm Tuesday still looking at scattered mountain snow showers. Snow levels around 4000ft</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
As always this is just one model run (quite the model run!!) so this is mainly to look for trends rather than exact timing and amounts.</div>
<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
Robert Elvingtonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00496807094727050039noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2720218995495947518.post-24016332381117553682012-11-14T11:21:00.001-08:002012-11-14T11:21:25.192-08:00Wet Pattern Begins Friday<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
As mentioned in my blog post last Wednesday (<a href="http://robertelvington.blogspot.com/2012/11/signs-point-to-active-next-two-weeks.html">blog post on signs of a wet pattern</a>), several key oscillations and global teleconnection signals were pointing to a wet pattern for the Northstate. It now appears that the wet and some what long duration pattern will begin early this coming Friday.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHPNQUUtfMnl0OsgV2MtmacFIyykruYuBBdj-ddRRW-Igd3c41u_NELQPoZVRunpfrULVuh8jH1-9q9oa0IaYIqw_zXws78FPUN-eCrEPh8HjOeyLAVgCJKebd8UR_D-8d3HuWQpXFFY9a/s1600/p120i12.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="239" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHPNQUUtfMnl0OsgV2MtmacFIyykruYuBBdj-ddRRW-Igd3c41u_NELQPoZVRunpfrULVuh8jH1-9q9oa0IaYIqw_zXws78FPUN-eCrEPh8HjOeyLAVgCJKebd8UR_D-8d3HuWQpXFFY9a/s320/p120i12.gif" width="320" /></a>\</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
This is the current 5 day precipitation total from <a href="http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-5.shtml">HPC</a>, forecasted all the way through 4:00 am Monday morning.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
You can see that they are currently going with around 2 inches for the valley and around 2-3 inches for the mountains, with a few isolated spots higher than that.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWNjxnoekS26mg_-VsJ3vrUOKYXb_zQ5foFz1hR9zUpbRrScTFT7-VpGitCL1_3F7nzCguHKy9JsFTRpO7igt8cW3UTGyZ-sCAJkAA2Y0au_AZ2V5UhSG7_tDWhEVOEyWpm2Xi0t_Qw5DO/s1600/pna.sprd2.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWNjxnoekS26mg_-VsJ3vrUOKYXb_zQ5foFz1hR9zUpbRrScTFT7-VpGitCL1_3F7nzCguHKy9JsFTRpO7igt8cW3UTGyZ-sCAJkAA2Y0au_AZ2V5UhSG7_tDWhEVOEyWpm2Xi0t_Qw5DO/s320/pna.sprd2.gif" width="240" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
This is the current forecast Pacific North American (<a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.pna_index_ensm.html">PNA forecast info</a>) oscillation teleconnection. As mentioned last Wednesday it is negative and looks to remain negative for the foreseeable future. Typically a strong -PNA reading correlates with a strong blocking high in the North Pacific which allows for long term troughing on the West Coast. With a trough close by that would increase our chances of wet and cold weather.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBuCt1r7iE4rz3SIty4HgQOr7YjCQ42BNES7NnVZ3byyqmnScQnQh_SgPCKcYrL2K1oqId97Tq5s7R7hIsze-KjXxagrDPhYkmo70dD-frtcYVfS3gLlT8ZukzOkfqbNInB6UjFTv8sg4o/s1600/ao.sprd2.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBuCt1r7iE4rz3SIty4HgQOr7YjCQ42BNES7NnVZ3byyqmnScQnQh_SgPCKcYrL2K1oqId97Tq5s7R7hIsze-KjXxagrDPhYkmo70dD-frtcYVfS3gLlT8ZukzOkfqbNInB6UjFTv8sg4o/s320/ao.sprd2.gif" width="240" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Currently the Arctic Oscilation (<a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml">AO forecast info</a>) is Positive but is forecast to soon to turn negative. Typically a -AO corresponds to a weaker Polar Vortex which in turn allows for kinks or trough to swing further south into the lower 48. In general, more troughs and more active weather for the lower 48.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijDlDPMcmGc3wAbN5d8KPQKDTmyaCSbk6pncaiIQmXHllj1qLxCxeDFJ0kkbGPvgpZJAuwamRREVvCbm1xMfk4IJ9OgAQzHZSA-IhMX2kDABTDfkLEIbyhmmb-15Zw5yZlVhzRbck9wq9O/s1600/500z_f162_bg_NA.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijDlDPMcmGc3wAbN5d8KPQKDTmyaCSbk6pncaiIQmXHllj1qLxCxeDFJ0kkbGPvgpZJAuwamRREVvCbm1xMfk4IJ9OgAQzHZSA-IhMX2kDABTDfkLEIbyhmmb-15Zw5yZlVhzRbck9wq9O/s320/500z_f162_bg_NA.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Here is the overall pattern. A typical -PNA setup. Strong blocking high in the North Pacific allows for deep and powerful troughs to slide down to the West Coast.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLY7FgRAiX0Fxd979plMdE3aB1uRS8Dpl87Hu28pW836uPGFzTtzaVAKbsEa4l6rRlUHHbOCBf7aM0yAEMDpqoZ-TnQwsMpa6Na1Ncjg9QoXcvr3xlKDTKWyISY3kIcW-Wh_WarjScWnH0/s1600/mgWeb_WRF_20121114-150000_ASW_ECONUS_F00423000_PwinterThickness_R12km.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLY7FgRAiX0Fxd979plMdE3aB1uRS8Dpl87Hu28pW836uPGFzTtzaVAKbsEa4l6rRlUHHbOCBf7aM0yAEMDpqoZ-TnQwsMpa6Na1Ncjg9QoXcvr3xlKDTKWyISY3kIcW-Wh_WarjScWnH0/s320/mgWeb_WRF_20121114-150000_ASW_ECONUS_F00423000_PwinterThickness_R12km.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Initial band of rain forecasted by our in house forecast model. You can see rain moving up from the south around 1:30 am, early Friday morning.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjt6Oev8i5aqSP-qVlVgB2otkEuvVCR-U2wBSsCZ8FCdwi56ci3I0ixhx55nSDgzb0rzFW1WcKYLp3A7fDLdLoP9bo0yvRF6ecbaBL23QywQN5MLQj4i2_EOz6kbUgPlfIc6g3vLWSNed-/s1600/mgWeb_WRF_20121114-150000_ASW_ECONUS_F00510000_PwinterThickness_R12km.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjt6Oev8i5aqSP-qVlVgB2otkEuvVCR-U2wBSsCZ8FCdwi56ci3I0ixhx55nSDgzb0rzFW1WcKYLp3A7fDLdLoP9bo0yvRF6ecbaBL23QywQN5MLQj4i2_EOz6kbUgPlfIc6g3vLWSNed-/s320/mgWeb_WRF_20121114-150000_ASW_ECONUS_F00510000_PwinterThickness_R12km.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
By 10:00 am Friday morning heavier and more widespread rain now over the Northstate.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFZ6HfPBTs4FY73Rq0bO6jF6DpgvZHMeAAzg_syRmKchRff9JOhSQhieGlLDcOC2AyLpcAWhUfMj0vQ203Xc6KbKTQPz9nwjLqRGZhTf73aUwHdlHpVtaCtjhQ7I5XvK3vqx3gLdRRwhJh/s1600/mgWeb_WRF_20121114-150000_ASW_ECONUS_F00533000_PwinterThickness_R12km.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFZ6HfPBTs4FY73Rq0bO6jF6DpgvZHMeAAzg_syRmKchRff9JOhSQhieGlLDcOC2AyLpcAWhUfMj0vQ203Xc6KbKTQPz9nwjLqRGZhTf73aUwHdlHpVtaCtjhQ7I5XvK3vqx3gLdRRwhJh/s320/mgWeb_WRF_20121114-150000_ASW_ECONUS_F00533000_PwinterThickness_R12km.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
By 12:30 rain slowly starting to move into the foothills and higher elevations, mainly to the east.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIrKvYSYQmUDd5veX8-wfDhn80XkKbcvLvoc99fyRbgD6vxchVmakNA-rpnmiXoT950Yk3ZJCxVgc7bWiSYkI3lyljCf7rxrXvYU5pWaOPsj9raKOUENRT9IUvSoekkbpFzC-Gd3IJa1ZO/s1600/mgWeb_WRF_20121114-150000_ASW_ECONUS_F00570000_PwinterThickness_R12km.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIrKvYSYQmUDd5veX8-wfDhn80XkKbcvLvoc99fyRbgD6vxchVmakNA-rpnmiXoT950Yk3ZJCxVgc7bWiSYkI3lyljCf7rxrXvYU5pWaOPsj9raKOUENRT9IUvSoekkbpFzC-Gd3IJa1ZO/s320/mgWeb_WRF_20121114-150000_ASW_ECONUS_F00570000_PwinterThickness_R12km.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
By 4:00 pm you can see a heavy line of rain setting up over the valley floor on late Friday afternoon.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvpVQgdHAI7f6qgNAeMk6EK7h7qXd17wBeMlG_SbZOZUjXpDGaQ2xQFT6PUzLV3Xg9_jolA_Xf7H0r5WZ-blXeeBGomTk09pN2OONOxCZuEIujNmwRPQLpocBW7V5Td1YOnDXkZsLVWbSh/s1600/mgWeb_WRF_20121114-150000_ASW_ECONUS_F00720000_PwinterThickness_R12km.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvpVQgdHAI7f6qgNAeMk6EK7h7qXd17wBeMlG_SbZOZUjXpDGaQ2xQFT6PUzLV3Xg9_jolA_Xf7H0r5WZ-blXeeBGomTk09pN2OONOxCZuEIujNmwRPQLpocBW7V5Td1YOnDXkZsLVWbSh/s320/mgWeb_WRF_20121114-150000_ASW_ECONUS_F00720000_PwinterThickness_R12km.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
By 7:00 am Saturday morning rain still lingering over the Northstate, mainly the eastern valley, foothills and valley floor.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOr47-OkGr25IkCaJ_6EMiKQWNiH3v-6PD4VU8kpF5kPWYynQ7ibKYlhhTqVHkr_WAMtRjsA_v0JeR_CNb-gK5cINEElkd1dFWylbU5B8yFbhyR8SHte-QZWQBhymakRk2BffW1hFm_h4X/s1600/gfs_op_apcp_f180_sw.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOr47-OkGr25IkCaJ_6EMiKQWNiH3v-6PD4VU8kpF5kPWYynQ7ibKYlhhTqVHkr_WAMtRjsA_v0JeR_CNb-gK5cINEElkd1dFWylbU5B8yFbhyR8SHte-QZWQBhymakRk2BffW1hFm_h4X/s320/gfs_op_apcp_f180_sw.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Still having timing issues, but appears our next strong and colder storm will arrive by 4:00 pm next Wednesday.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCVe9djuCHt6Ktc75Fh4Ojw2uzXwtnii9B6nUazSPtfdxztbcgiPgZoq-lG2PuQR9oBDjGuzbpNKcYIXB1MIqLZ_ZkOz6BrQnJQqtzakp5oEKwxKJwp4brQHO9Mb3eJFSe-1Sam3-i2Se9/s1600/gfs_op_apcp_f192_sw.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCVe9djuCHt6Ktc75Fh4Ojw2uzXwtnii9B6nUazSPtfdxztbcgiPgZoq-lG2PuQR9oBDjGuzbpNKcYIXB1MIqLZ_ZkOz6BrQnJQqtzakp5oEKwxKJwp4brQHO9Mb3eJFSe-1Sam3-i2Se9/s320/gfs_op_apcp_f192_sw.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
By 4:00 am Thanksgiving morning heavier rain moves into the Northstate. Snow level look to be around 4000 ft</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicBmSay57qrPhNHImNuQN5OQ7jUeilNi_1sUOsvO9ccjhUNN1jytkhMV7FEnj53GbB_Xewjgc7i1dk31KGpAjxNK12k31rpxKx2gEyzc42XpuuvRj3KwuvbwPyb7hXq93e4-l0mEv7xkQn/s1600/gfs_op_apcp_f324_sw.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicBmSay57qrPhNHImNuQN5OQ7jUeilNi_1sUOsvO9ccjhUNN1jytkhMV7FEnj53GbB_Xewjgc7i1dk31KGpAjxNK12k31rpxKx2gEyzc42XpuuvRj3KwuvbwPyb7hXq93e4-l0mEv7xkQn/s320/gfs_op_apcp_f324_sw.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Even two weeks from today we continue to see the cycle of wet storms rotating through. This is just a trend so do not plan any thing around these maps.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<br />
<br /><br />Robert Elvingtonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00496807094727050039noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2720218995495947518.post-61664865074612874122012-11-07T09:35:00.000-08:002012-11-07T09:35:02.274-08:00Signs Point to An Active Next Two WeeksI have actually been holding back the last 3 days on this blog post waiting for a little reassurance before throwing down a long range forecast.<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
There are several forecast teleconnections/oscillations we look at besides the data that comes down from our very sophisticated numerical forecast weather models.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Here's what we're seeing....</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6q4cJDI25cRsxUSa_3XWP2W-CjQMdtFyBWCGYN60WFzqovBZ8V4HAvNt9Mw_0Eum32eJg9gHrqTdbHNxlJ5FOekJ2dtPuePCynQnlYkmSO38RtkOP32vntJparVBoqZcU5MH4csPJ5HgX/s1600/mjo.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="188" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6q4cJDI25cRsxUSa_3XWP2W-CjQMdtFyBWCGYN60WFzqovBZ8V4HAvNt9Mw_0Eum32eJg9gHrqTdbHNxlJ5FOekJ2dtPuePCynQnlYkmSO38RtkOP32vntJparVBoqZcU5MH4csPJ5HgX/s320/mjo.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
This is the Madden Julian Oscillation Index. In general it is a measure of Deep Tropical convection in the Indian Ocean that oscillates around the globe, later affecting the West Coast of N. America (primarily in the Late Fall and Winter months). Over the last couple of weeks we have moved into a high amplitude 2/3 phase which later supports a wet pattern for Northern California.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj529Ey-ZtFMLzawxfZNAXlr51e49meqQwqzd2A6cmFXY7jKC8sjY9hNoqLyW_6aVBbARvIED4tM9jwNCIqBYslvlnmeo6qQtF7PnwvTB6VxVviRFRIN-EFenU6tfav3NYMXSGjnEu_LCrx/s1600/mjosign.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="184" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj529Ey-ZtFMLzawxfZNAXlr51e49meqQwqzd2A6cmFXY7jKC8sjY9hNoqLyW_6aVBbARvIED4tM9jwNCIqBYslvlnmeo6qQtF7PnwvTB6VxVviRFRIN-EFenU6tfav3NYMXSGjnEu_LCrx/s320/mjosign.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
You can see the high significance of a wet pattern for Northern California during active phase 2 and 3</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMEgbdZ0iEDIZ8ZPwjVxwSD-8ml2dELtBosHIONbXKUmPGfuQHRMH4FJwnSKbX7Fl0AtowlWM8Pug-khS-t-8X_bU8szj1at4HvzVGet7Tv1LfF22C2m1fU1mD8ARluSDgdjyRg__pA9Vp/s1600/350px-Mjo_north_america_rain.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMEgbdZ0iEDIZ8ZPwjVxwSD-8ml2dELtBosHIONbXKUmPGfuQHRMH4FJwnSKbX7Fl0AtowlWM8Pug-khS-t-8X_bU8szj1at4HvzVGet7Tv1LfF22C2m1fU1mD8ARluSDgdjyRg__pA9Vp/s320/350px-Mjo_north_america_rain.png" width="237" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
A very simplistic animation of the MJO cycle</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipIgqfFqvcYnEb5FSL_F8eu7wqXDV5w5szVHblAlzcly-5pA6clFEUewxG6UqIGc2HdOSYQRPaZzJDLiIWupori1vgmLLvgqyxtOZxvzC5fJiDu6y3h2oXvS0DhxmGOKgSM4X1PERWwMgZ/s1600/pna.sprd2.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipIgqfFqvcYnEb5FSL_F8eu7wqXDV5w5szVHblAlzcly-5pA6clFEUewxG6UqIGc2HdOSYQRPaZzJDLiIWupori1vgmLLvgqyxtOZxvzC5fJiDu6y3h2oXvS0DhxmGOKgSM4X1PERWwMgZ/s320/pna.sprd2.gif" width="240" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Another important blocking mechanism showing up on extended forecast models is a long and strong negative PNA (Pacific North American Teleconnection) phase. Most models are keeping us negative through the next 16 days.</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLnu5uKtjEpUPjT6TM_mCI8J5HOKvxGG40syNdhmzKXkZ-caJQPVvHXvYXSa7jMF9yZjAlnhQ9vNfV2fS0M2k-5SJCl9YCjbTqN_3WWry3Xo5qFpcpA4su9TA63eepRaOF9o0Xy6rfvZPF/s1600/PNA_NEGATIVE_1985.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="255" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLnu5uKtjEpUPjT6TM_mCI8J5HOKvxGG40syNdhmzKXkZ-caJQPVvHXvYXSa7jMF9yZjAlnhQ9vNfV2fS0M2k-5SJCl9YCjbTqN_3WWry3Xo5qFpcpA4su9TA63eepRaOF9o0Xy6rfvZPF/s320/PNA_NEGATIVE_1985.gif" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<b>BOTH IMAGES ARE ANOMALIES FOUND IN NEGATIVE PNA PHASE DURING A 28 YEAR CLIMATOLOGY</b></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
There is high significance in a strong negative phase and cold/upper level lows from the Gulf of Alaska setting up over Northern California and the Pacific Northwest</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtwLgDdeUA9Gf_t7IeAn4yquFKAE2s0SJ1v_Dzm0YJQhSbDVYrt-RG9iunuUHtH5Bz8RrqhoOjAs8_lhryigTnxpE4Bs5q5aWfYnI5Sf8CzeDkcEz0RKAqomuYgC-N5c0_BhfUDUnbGHOO/s1600/PNA_NEGATIVE_1985_TEMPS+%25281%2529.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="254" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtwLgDdeUA9Gf_t7IeAn4yquFKAE2s0SJ1v_Dzm0YJQhSbDVYrt-RG9iunuUHtH5Bz8RrqhoOjAs8_lhryigTnxpE4Bs5q5aWfYnI5Sf8CzeDkcEz0RKAqomuYgC-N5c0_BhfUDUnbGHOO/s320/PNA_NEGATIVE_1985_TEMPS+%25281%2529.gif" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
With cold upper level lows in place this also supports cold surface temperatures too.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>MAPS BELOW ARE FROM THE 12z RUN OF THE 11-07-2012 GFS FORECAST MODEL RUN</b></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMgU-BAr7NeedXqHtyl5aqOy3J1mFhiu3ITM19moFRsQtxwSJPUcgi0pm2FQ0PiNe6F5ugy5VSWXKkq_iqWkxDVn08CqjS_tYqgaG8fihxrfKsaBjr2PMv8ho4Twcr3g7G2F1_QIn4FQxW/s1600/gfs_op_apcp_f240_us.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMgU-BAr7NeedXqHtyl5aqOy3J1mFhiu3ITM19moFRsQtxwSJPUcgi0pm2FQ0PiNe6F5ugy5VSWXKkq_iqWkxDVn08CqjS_tYqgaG8fihxrfKsaBjr2PMv8ho4Twcr3g7G2F1_QIn4FQxW/s320/gfs_op_apcp_f240_us.png" width="320" /></a></div>
Hints of our first strong cold front slowly moving in by day 10 (240 hrs out) next Saturday<br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYmwdcB3P0-SxqrerymyBMUwY-j4ln6Al5_lcMj40XSPFJCdrsTagA4qyoqs9iPfQz5y_X_C6wHQCPt-G_NoqMPaaVU4RJtiqZdKqrHFJOxLmlScYp7BB7mb1pbOK158SjmuZ1f4a7mnkm/s1600/gfs_op_apcp_f288_us.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYmwdcB3P0-SxqrerymyBMUwY-j4ln6Al5_lcMj40XSPFJCdrsTagA4qyoqs9iPfQz5y_X_C6wHQCPt-G_NoqMPaaVU4RJtiqZdKqrHFJOxLmlScYp7BB7mb1pbOK158SjmuZ1f4a7mnkm/s320/gfs_op_apcp_f288_us.png" width="320" /></a></div>
Very strong and wet low pressure system moving in by hr. 288 the following Monday<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVIYznXy20KJth9otAjoH7rWCjR46ajTwpuyKE5UgZyWxdlHCzQAk2iM4Bj3h04xqWV0zVrVbpU3h1esZB9Pb7iQ193pVeztY2-F-4VzOnBJWWXa3KIiu8XfrM9N2zClBgghBJ0kyxyZ_H/s1600/gfs_op_apcp_f300_us.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVIYznXy20KJth9otAjoH7rWCjR46ajTwpuyKE5UgZyWxdlHCzQAk2iM4Bj3h04xqWV0zVrVbpU3h1esZB9Pb7iQ193pVeztY2-F-4VzOnBJWWXa3KIiu8XfrM9N2zClBgghBJ0kyxyZ_H/s320/gfs_op_apcp_f300_us.png" width="320" /></a></div>
Still wet through hr. 300<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigi3WftWsehL6NEYAqtqDBVGtFBqdSNBNQNa7oYSsancTXcIasWY6mO3300RQqjj5gmJQC17jQcZOc7JvSFPH0IBApP-39sLRHfs8dRikH__xpnB8pR7bUh-hNYFi4BH8pGMMzbvC1f4_k/s1600/gfs_op_apcp_f384_us.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigi3WftWsehL6NEYAqtqDBVGtFBqdSNBNQNa7oYSsancTXcIasWY6mO3300RQqjj5gmJQC17jQcZOc7JvSFPH0IBApP-39sLRHfs8dRikH__xpnB8pR7bUh-hNYFi4BH8pGMMzbvC1f4_k/s320/gfs_op_apcp_f384_us.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div>
Even the very last frame (hr. 384), another extremely large wet and cold system moving towards Northern California.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Please do not takes these maps as exact forecast times and dates. The important thing to see is the overall pattern and trend, not individual weather events.</div>
Robert Elvingtonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00496807094727050039noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2720218995495947518.post-46030800402862192712012-10-24T07:38:00.000-07:002012-10-24T07:38:05.509-07:00Perfect Storm for The Northeast This Monday?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyMzyOdN6VDFfQlpLkt7u7m_YhCpTaaCgO0bSSVRUcpb9oXJXTkMQHEJ-0kS_oGbiVm4VJMYX9n5CcDnTYYC1dfJLYbHwVuU1fj3FaRH860PPHqtoXtXBBTV98nRUthqh3xYbp5RWeJP8P/s1600/A59xoPJCUAEQZNg.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyMzyOdN6VDFfQlpLkt7u7m_YhCpTaaCgO0bSSVRUcpb9oXJXTkMQHEJ-0kS_oGbiVm4VJMYX9n5CcDnTYYC1dfJLYbHwVuU1fj3FaRH860PPHqtoXtXBBTV98nRUthqh3xYbp5RWeJP8P/s320/A59xoPJCUAEQZNg.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
The image you see above is the European forecast model prediction or output for the possibility of a so called "Perfect Storm," Hurricane/Nor'easter hybrid. With a central pressure of 933.7mb it is only about 6 hours away from landfall in New Jersey late next Monday night. Implications? Hurricane force wind gusts, storm surge (under a full moon tide) and heavy rain on the east side of the cold front. The west side of the cold front gets interesting! Heavy Heavy snow accumulations , paralyzing for some spots, all under blizzard conditions.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTbm6A-eVta-nWQ0-FkPqmSGCM6H0wJexZi0Tem4BN8wKCbhg3MVbLfq6p2d0K6RmwWFletQwgogdQFDSGjjhyphenhyphen36SyzY6ZdR9v7AgYmYSb8cGMAZhOuFr9NrBgiFbWLccPoJ65NZQvR9sm/s1600/thk_f084_bg_us.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTbm6A-eVta-nWQ0-FkPqmSGCM6H0wJexZi0Tem4BN8wKCbhg3MVbLfq6p2d0K6RmwWFletQwgogdQFDSGjjhyphenhyphen36SyzY6ZdR9v7AgYmYSb8cGMAZhOuFr9NrBgiFbWLccPoJ65NZQvR9sm/s320/thk_f084_bg_us.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
So what are the conditions? Our trough from the Northstate, that has brought rain and snow the last few days begins to barrel across the country. You can pick up the trough diving down into the Northern Plains/Great Lakes region by Saturday morning. Off the coast of Florida you can see Hurricane Sandy moving north, northwest.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgu5RRkR414hvHxScEpEc1q2OpUd2NBIGOwYy_0xjiYaDHn7Ymt643OJqYLlnD7m8P71QihFzOtRgUxgiaT17HuwyyxGKSYrAhUEu11cbqld1q0W8uAwcNScVM1W40hARCcE3ZNUmgbII5F/s1600/euro+phase.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgu5RRkR414hvHxScEpEc1q2OpUd2NBIGOwYy_0xjiYaDHn7Ymt643OJqYLlnD7m8P71QihFzOtRgUxgiaT17HuwyyxGKSYrAhUEu11cbqld1q0W8uAwcNScVM1W40hARCcE3ZNUmgbII5F/s320/euro+phase.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
By Sunday evening the trough/cold front grabs what's left of Tropical Sandy and begins to "Phase" it into what we call an extratropical system. Basically a switch from a warm core system to a cold core system or winter storm. This will then intensify it and slingshot back into the trough which unfortunately would be the Northeast/New England coastline.</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqDDjWKVI13Gk5sOV4Sb4MgP2JHoJSFN7bydB9MlRMHNX_WwEjCWxKdIBb3V498ZM-XdOkhnDVlJgqBeGH3HPx9GCmCy6A0MRFtkGWXjYk75hQePptSVZiYbQBRMC-ve0GNSive-PlnU0M/s1600/ecmwf_apcp_f144_us.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqDDjWKVI13Gk5sOV4Sb4MgP2JHoJSFN7bydB9MlRMHNX_WwEjCWxKdIBb3V498ZM-XdOkhnDVlJgqBeGH3HPx9GCmCy6A0MRFtkGWXjYk75hQePptSVZiYbQBRMC-ve0GNSive-PlnU0M/s320/ecmwf_apcp_f144_us.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Another look at predicted precipitation from the European forecast model as it makes landfall late Monday evening.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqu8SVrPGWTiALG_WJ7FkhDQqPyV1NKpI4zl3Qz7vqPt88ci11ed1P9gY8affx926YxoBeziV5sjcSrAhSjWWNYESE5zBsPKPqQjXmtyYCbd-ZDO_gbiouK4B-ST20kE_vZFL-pFpAlSeC/s1600/euro+ensemb.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqu8SVrPGWTiALG_WJ7FkhDQqPyV1NKpI4zl3Qz7vqPt88ci11ed1P9gY8affx926YxoBeziV5sjcSrAhSjWWNYESE5zBsPKPqQjXmtyYCbd-ZDO_gbiouK4B-ST20kE_vZFL-pFpAlSeC/s320/euro+ensemb.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
his image above is what we call an Ensemble Mean through the European forecast model. Basically we take the European model and change a lot of parameters, environmental conditions of what could or couldn't happen. This gets run dozens of times and then averaged out. This is what the average looks like by Monday evening. You can see the low landfalling right around Long Island, NY.</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6zNaPFRzWa26pwY4OnssXxXJ_pCIwtqjiXWKGrK98rRIoKMPK9ywRe1SrXWpCEnTsMkcohA1Fs4_NasTjE3vcWUgMAFPAnETmnlXnrg3uS6iZ1uERwQoa2vy_q5o_B-fcn_varPDIxg8X/s1600/gem+ensembles.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6zNaPFRzWa26pwY4OnssXxXJ_pCIwtqjiXWKGrK98rRIoKMPK9ywRe1SrXWpCEnTsMkcohA1Fs4_NasTjE3vcWUgMAFPAnETmnlXnrg3uS6iZ1uERwQoa2vy_q5o_B-fcn_varPDIxg8X/s320/gem+ensembles.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
All the big Operational Medium Range Forecast models do ensemble means. This is the Canadian model you can see the landfalling system a tad bit north, closer to New England.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0NF5iv-d75Jk7bo4a16nO4OafzK1Kj-BqyrTcKumq4AnTDFaAWjmfviqbjkCt875bHKKiPnXgb9UWeoZKbmll8MkkhJ-NNhI_45mltlv6pl_Wq9KckaAUEAnMLMLIPAn0xckQwDNE9gja/s1600/mthk_f156_bg_US.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0NF5iv-d75Jk7bo4a16nO4OafzK1Kj-BqyrTcKumq4AnTDFaAWjmfviqbjkCt875bHKKiPnXgb9UWeoZKbmll8MkkhJ-NNhI_45mltlv6pl_Wq9KckaAUEAnMLMLIPAn0xckQwDNE9gja/s320/mthk_f156_bg_US.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Lastly the American model known as the GFS. This is the ensemble average and you can also see a strike around the Northeast coast.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
This is what is concerning for that area. When you see several operational model runs along with an agreement of several ensembles you need to start play close attention to potentially devastating storm.</div>
<br />
<br />Robert Elvingtonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00496807094727050039noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2720218995495947518.post-43697312194923566922011-12-30T13:15:00.000-08:002011-12-30T13:19:28.182-08:00A Cold, Stormy Pattern on The Horizon?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">After a very dry and mild November and December, the big question is when is this going to change and when are we going to get some snow and rain?</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyU6VAsudn4q0hULNNWDHaJWrCPFy-6BVe_2uWD0pmKUSpyCSzmTKbfvfzaZc1O2axfKBBxWc6pIxTMahSLIu9H5Q1NL2NhyphenhyphenkhYQSl1yO0h4FA0v91fRow6j1pe5AhpyiBp8NeYxPD_RZx/s1600/a1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="179" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyU6VAsudn4q0hULNNWDHaJWrCPFy-6BVe_2uWD0pmKUSpyCSzmTKbfvfzaZc1O2axfKBBxWc6pIxTMahSLIu9H5Q1NL2NhyphenhyphenkhYQSl1yO0h4FA0v91fRow6j1pe5AhpyiBp8NeYxPD_RZx/s320/a1.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: left;">The main issue is the blocking high off the coast of California. This has deflecting every approaching storm to our north/northeast. Even this weekend we will see another short lived ridge build over the Northstate clearing us out and keeping us mild.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Now we mainly use forecast models, including the images I'm including in this blogpost, as tools rather than a conclusion of what's going to happen. We look for pattern changes rather than the exact placement of a low, high, or large Gulf of Alaska trough. Here's the latest GFS model run from Friday morning. It should be noted that this is the third big run in a row that includes a cold/wet pattern ahead.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiG5yJTwA4wFBcgAFhnqZF6_uJkjcKf8L0MWMwbLqzjIc8Skyd2OIgnsPFjS7VEYrvV-P2ECCeyn394mxAqAcCC2tsMih_8mXl7Bo9bjhKfACD8us5LwSx5EWViKpE8pBL0Dxpcj2rpYdRZ/s1600/a2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="179" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiG5yJTwA4wFBcgAFhnqZF6_uJkjcKf8L0MWMwbLqzjIc8Skyd2OIgnsPFjS7VEYrvV-P2ECCeyn394mxAqAcCC2tsMih_8mXl7Bo9bjhKfACD8us5LwSx5EWViKpE8pBL0Dxpcj2rpYdRZ/s320/a2.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">This is this coming Thursday (Jan 6th). Our first semi cold/wet system in a while. This system should be out of here by Next Friday and we will likely clear back out for another 3-4 days. Before an even larger pattern change..</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJjDFH47zcbr2JGKZAxWjuBWYEjjpM4KTDS8NbMeFTqC0YMAy_W6ueNg1vJ2kFRDeMdX4zfpWxUwciBEeQ4EJVU7brjxByg0llnnYjULJsH4qc1KPvXYFqOPtps-MNud57t_r4vEROMbuj/s1600/a3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="179" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJjDFH47zcbr2JGKZAxWjuBWYEjjpM4KTDS8NbMeFTqC0YMAy_W6ueNg1vJ2kFRDeMdX4zfpWxUwciBEeQ4EJVU7brjxByg0llnnYjULJsH4qc1KPvXYFqOPtps-MNud57t_r4vEROMbuj/s320/a3.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Forecast models are now hinting at a sustain cold/wet outbreak as early as January 10th.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVlkGSfCwGIYMtuX6mPY_b2TrRLxq5MSjcZQCixYv2BQbEpCL2jTpZJi7tK3PYu3e2Awm98WWbVrisqRvKevJlRdCu7YG8Y_F1FduJNgsnujLs4HuraVhkByJ0lDVzciMpGxp-_aI86PZ2/s1600/a4.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="179" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVlkGSfCwGIYMtuX6mPY_b2TrRLxq5MSjcZQCixYv2BQbEpCL2jTpZJi7tK3PYu3e2Awm98WWbVrisqRvKevJlRdCu7YG8Y_F1FduJNgsnujLs4HuraVhkByJ0lDVzciMpGxp-_aI86PZ2/s320/a4.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Again just use this as a tool not a end all be all. But by two weeks from now a very stormy pattern setting up for the Northstate. A wave train of storms out of Alaska! Lots of time in between but it should be fun to watch and track the next 1.5 to 2 weeks!</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/MRF_12z/mrfloop2.html">http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/MRF_12z/mrfloop2.html</a> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Rob</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><br />
<div><br />
</div><div><br />
</div>Robert Elvingtonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00496807094727050039noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2720218995495947518.post-24239083763728721352011-12-16T09:04:00.000-08:002011-12-16T09:04:04.259-08:00INDIAN OCEAN ACTIVITY COULD END THE NORTHSTATE'S DRY SPELL<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjH36kvSPyfOw1pjeM5YabajgBowWS8iBCjfeuWt2aL3WuizGJ52y5HiyRxWS_Lg4VbuyyLhAXlpRSeZwB6JusVAuio0xe21B-5Y14p-6MAgK0jRN0N02_y581ihitS_eX35lhPwQDb7k1m/s1600/blockinghigh2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="260" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjH36kvSPyfOw1pjeM5YabajgBowWS8iBCjfeuWt2aL3WuizGJ52y5HiyRxWS_Lg4VbuyyLhAXlpRSeZwB6JusVAuio0xe21B-5Y14p-6MAgK0jRN0N02_y581ihitS_eX35lhPwQDb7k1m/s320/blockinghigh2.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">The last 4 weeks the Northstate has remained dry, mild, and sunny. The main culprit....a large blocking high pressure system to our west. This high has blocked any system from penetrating the Northstate. The only activity has been low pressure systems rotating clockwise around this high and brushing us on the northeast side. We call these backdoor sliders, which are typical Northstate wind events.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Why has this been occurring? We are in a weak LA NINA?? Well a few things, activity in the poles and arctic have been weak. This has kept the jet stream from buckling and sending waves and storms down south to the Northstate.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Another large factor is the MJO Activity (Madden Julian Oscillation) it's been non existent the last month. THE MJO plays a huge factor in the Western United States in the Winter, especially in weak LA NINA/Neutral conditions(which we currently are).</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbPdYZx0WYa30-fKl2bj6IrgiIrJ1K4bdZ3Iwmc-Uk2qQihczc25wwDONbfb0YlOHHd1RuJuwjztAnkSldG2FUSKdvcceyu38b6P6nBXPOj4vdq0EzdNsN84iEY-REtxWgWMBRvXDAH79D/s1600/currentmjo.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbPdYZx0WYa30-fKl2bj6IrgiIrJ1K4bdZ3Iwmc-Uk2qQihczc25wwDONbfb0YlOHHd1RuJuwjztAnkSldG2FUSKdvcceyu38b6P6nBXPOj4vdq0EzdNsN84iEY-REtxWgWMBRvXDAH79D/s320/currentmjo.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Here's where we are. the last month nothing, but you will notice the orange (thunderstorm activity) beginning to emerge into Frame.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZqQE34V8gCXbuNcsd7oJfD9IPqXG8e7QM_ZcKX7NDqZ5HqMdcE2ec-An3RdljtCkVK8dxgn5gMAclbmhqlxrSyj30jrU0dwDPUXSt6tr7d_79pPm9vfaSe-mP9KK5UQRbXY7UDgN3h0le/s1600/mjoforecast.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="190" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZqQE34V8gCXbuNcsd7oJfD9IPqXG8e7QM_ZcKX7NDqZ5HqMdcE2ec-An3RdljtCkVK8dxgn5gMAclbmhqlxrSyj30jrU0dwDPUXSt6tr7d_79pPm9vfaSe-mP9KK5UQRbXY7UDgN3h0le/s320/mjoforecast.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Here's the 15 day forecast, a huge event occurring towards days 11-15 in the Indian Ocean.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">So what does this mean?? Notice the blocking high in this first phase and then the transition.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqa1lwuhG7UCPFAlPZu0h-khFOOflNE8ndI_yI0FunBvgShJom65NWFAQi5YohHWPkOFFv_p8hl7wzPsCykhMu_1rieqyTi7LlLLXQr3xt16xVNFVTyRY0THSeYbMONFu4csrLbDDWQ8cp/s1600/445px-Mjo_north_america_rain.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqa1lwuhG7UCPFAlPZu0h-khFOOflNE8ndI_yI0FunBvgShJom65NWFAQi5YohHWPkOFFv_p8hl7wzPsCykhMu_1rieqyTi7LlLLXQr3xt16xVNFVTyRY0THSeYbMONFu4csrLbDDWQ8cp/s320/445px-Mjo_north_america_rain.png" width="237" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">This phase shift will probably take some time to work into the Southern Pacific and does not guarantee any big storms but it is a light at the end of the tunnel</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">here's some material on this.....</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madden%E2%80%93Julian_oscillation">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madden%E2%80%93Julian_oscillation</a> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf">http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf</a> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml">http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml</a> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div>Robert Elvingtonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00496807094727050039noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2720218995495947518.post-39289203991808852942011-06-25T13:59:00.000-07:002011-06-25T13:59:49.862-07:00Storms Next WeekWe are a little over three days away from this unseasonably strong, cool, and wet system. First off this system began showing up on model runs early last week and really began to catch my eye Tuesday night. If you will remember, it was Wednesday morning's Daybreak show where we began to mention it and place it on our 7 day forecast.<br />
<br />
As always the forecast models wavered, fluctuated, and even completely lost it in the days that followed. It wasn't really until Thursday night/Friday morning that models completely jumped into unison and formed a consensus. That consensus is a sharp upper level cut off low situated in a trough that will come ashore Northern California and track over the Northstate.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKLhIwq2_Jd1qhNmoiIODlItTmRxQAYbN10bWHDjv5i-oaAPzqklld1REac-6De38xKQ4eSxKZ3XQBruLzUjHWV9ZBJ_UFyrWLGUvGp49G8fUSENauiC_VrAYrupowW_pcPb22eyp80c4J/s1600/GFS+Sunday.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="263" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKLhIwq2_Jd1qhNmoiIODlItTmRxQAYbN10bWHDjv5i-oaAPzqklld1REac-6De38xKQ4eSxKZ3XQBruLzUjHWV9ZBJ_UFyrWLGUvGp49G8fUSENauiC_VrAYrupowW_pcPb22eyp80c4J/s320/GFS+Sunday.JPG" width="320" /> </a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">This is the 12z GFS valid tomorrow morning you will notice a slight ridge moving into the area. This ridge is being pushed up by the approaching upper level low off to our northwest. This entire low movement is being forced south by strong vort maxs to it's north. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEit9S9wRTKuRJRzi1Vt7dqFAB3SnSywa7m_EjVlXNBxYSGvKMP_OIfBtqCkwI8Le1TeEQexEq8CMKucySn6BUGQ3gvRUabn5zJhYQlX0f_Gpxwhk_gq8BFduTHZreEd4qNS6GnSnIWAPVHF/s1600/Mondaymor.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="259" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEit9S9wRTKuRJRzi1Vt7dqFAB3SnSywa7m_EjVlXNBxYSGvKMP_OIfBtqCkwI8Le1TeEQexEq8CMKucySn6BUGQ3gvRUabn5zJhYQlX0f_Gpxwhk_gq8BFduTHZreEd4qNS6GnSnIWAPVHF/s320/Mondaymor.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>You can now see the separated low descending from the northern stream being fueled by vort maxes.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_a___sk6aXKzUfzNhVZfcyXajwPejrmqWd8cFJgI82GOfgrTCtgF9ymhdSsdsv88n8F1tHYuWVjCioaatddM39doUcpFbCDPVglEDWyelKQ0WNnMESUsx86XFg0CKqvV8kBx6t7sWPLKO/s1600/Tuesdaynight.bmp" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="259" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_a___sk6aXKzUfzNhVZfcyXajwPejrmqWd8cFJgI82GOfgrTCtgF9ymhdSsdsv88n8F1tHYuWVjCioaatddM39doUcpFbCDPVglEDWyelKQ0WNnMESUsx86XFg0CKqvV8kBx6t7sWPLKO/s320/Tuesdaynight.bmp" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIBtWUo6v1qj1K-FHW4jKTUeiFiHFEQ31rIjZnJH_pfjyMkOxSNJSJbE7IbbCRbuBF993MdQ5bt_iPu_Pa1UcJ33Jw8p4RSPQhf65mE5HaU0O1zFNJELKcddxNG9Uz2UVKSuDMpxyb5CGA/s1600/gfsthurs.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><br />
</a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIBtWUo6v1qj1K-FHW4jKTUeiFiHFEQ31rIjZnJH_pfjyMkOxSNJSJbE7IbbCRbuBF993MdQ5bt_iPu_Pa1UcJ33Jw8p4RSPQhf65mE5HaU0O1zFNJELKcddxNG9Uz2UVKSuDMpxyb5CGA/s1600/gfsthurs.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><br />
</a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIBtWUo6v1qj1K-FHW4jKTUeiFiHFEQ31rIjZnJH_pfjyMkOxSNJSJbE7IbbCRbuBF993MdQ5bt_iPu_Pa1UcJ33Jw8p4RSPQhf65mE5HaU0O1zFNJELKcddxNG9Uz2UVKSuDMpxyb5CGA/s1600/gfsthurs.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="209" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIBtWUo6v1qj1K-FHW4jKTUeiFiHFEQ31rIjZnJH_pfjyMkOxSNJSJbE7IbbCRbuBF993MdQ5bt_iPu_Pa1UcJ33Jw8p4RSPQhf65mE5HaU0O1zFNJELKcddxNG9Uz2UVKSuDMpxyb5CGA/s320/gfsthurs.JPG" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkMeQdMyBjU4jgLKufxpoRDIU3PYUZD91AkGpdTzG8CBlNkSAA0hF3Qw9xDGruu2JZictOllIk9pAhnqX5G-stTGWUYCRww4wyf3YvNTvMdSDULRkrV3i1M85Ayib2mmMVQQiX_g1mrUEh/s1600/european.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><br />
</a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkMeQdMyBjU4jgLKufxpoRDIU3PYUZD91AkGpdTzG8CBlNkSAA0hF3Qw9xDGruu2JZictOllIk9pAhnqX5G-stTGWUYCRww4wyf3YvNTvMdSDULRkrV3i1M85Ayib2mmMVQQiX_g1mrUEh/s1600/european.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><br />
</a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkMeQdMyBjU4jgLKufxpoRDIU3PYUZD91AkGpdTzG8CBlNkSAA0hF3Qw9xDGruu2JZictOllIk9pAhnqX5G-stTGWUYCRww4wyf3YvNTvMdSDULRkrV3i1M85Ayib2mmMVQQiX_g1mrUEh/s1600/european.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="253" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkMeQdMyBjU4jgLKufxpoRDIU3PYUZD91AkGpdTzG8CBlNkSAA0hF3Qw9xDGruu2JZictOllIk9pAhnqX5G-stTGWUYCRww4wyf3YvNTvMdSDULRkrV3i1M85Ayib2mmMVQQiX_g1mrUEh/s320/european.JPG" width="320" /></a></div><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkMeQdMyBjU4jgLKufxpoRDIU3PYUZD91AkGpdTzG8CBlNkSAA0hF3Qw9xDGruu2JZictOllIk9pAhnqX5G-stTGWUYCRww4wyf3YvNTvMdSDULRkrV3i1M85Ayib2mmMVQQiX_g1mrUEh/s1600/european.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><br />
</a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPkZNn7xyXlQV3b37-XNPbJ9V1_UJ9yCKclLSfkOo4DQvgJZABF6Z7RlQzXECmJlyPL23z_Sm8sXW_2JrK9MHEvtSLs8oG66ze9yrasMJDUg-sxThGZ7Z7WFm6_UdBm8_D6Gg-zrYHJcy3/s1600/850+temps.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="276" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPkZNn7xyXlQV3b37-XNPbJ9V1_UJ9yCKclLSfkOo4DQvgJZABF6Z7RlQzXECmJlyPL23z_Sm8sXW_2JrK9MHEvtSLs8oG66ze9yrasMJDUg-sxThGZ7Z7WFm6_UdBm8_D6Gg-zrYHJcy3/s320/850+temps.JPG" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkMeQdMyBjU4jgLKufxpoRDIU3PYUZD91AkGpdTzG8CBlNkSAA0hF3Qw9xDGruu2JZictOllIk9pAhnqX5G-stTGWUYCRww4wyf3YvNTvMdSDULRkrV3i1M85Ayib2mmMVQQiX_g1mrUEh/s1600/european.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><br />
</a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihKAP8qqu5MZ3qVt9r04UKJLHmSDYNVtb0CfpGSNXbaUVJg-glCDsoCnrjZV9JsoQaV7vcRMHUhclHKXi-dRevvHF0d4XJDapKLAKuI23YUCWNhuIAYY4ozYpwuC62LOhkyvB8N-1rtjzJ/s1600/hottemps.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="253" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihKAP8qqu5MZ3qVt9r04UKJLHmSDYNVtb0CfpGSNXbaUVJg-glCDsoCnrjZV9JsoQaV7vcRMHUhclHKXi-dRevvHF0d4XJDapKLAKuI23YUCWNhuIAYY4ozYpwuC62LOhkyvB8N-1rtjzJ/s320/hottemps.JPG" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkMeQdMyBjU4jgLKufxpoRDIU3PYUZD91AkGpdTzG8CBlNkSAA0hF3Qw9xDGruu2JZictOllIk9pAhnqX5G-stTGWUYCRww4wyf3YvNTvMdSDULRkrV3i1M85Ayib2mmMVQQiX_g1mrUEh/s1600/european.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><br />
</a></div><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div>Robert Elvingtonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00496807094727050039noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2720218995495947518.post-11231135361243521712011-05-10T15:06:00.000-07:002011-05-10T15:08:50.246-07:00This WeekendFor today and tomorrow the Northstate will see a weak ridge continue to build in. So temps will remain in the low 80s with clear skies. The rest of the work week zonal flow will be our main pattern with temps in the upper 70s.<br />
<br />
The main story of the next 7 days will be this weekend's system.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiinr2G4rkzGoSliJ-4ptv91KRombTQrYzQRni-XJ4vthWNDsOuhKIn_i-dv1P9zfA8Rbew2dfOWyDm0WzoRXl06FYNCPY0reuOTVg49tVX8J2r3wjFHYeaG6F3NdJnMe5W7dDUy9DqOyH_/s1600/GFS500.bmp" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="228" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiinr2G4rkzGoSliJ-4ptv91KRombTQrYzQRni-XJ4vthWNDsOuhKIn_i-dv1P9zfA8Rbew2dfOWyDm0WzoRXl06FYNCPY0reuOTVg49tVX8J2r3wjFHYeaG6F3NdJnMe5W7dDUy9DqOyH_/s320/GFS500.bmp" width="320" /></a></div> You will notice a strong trough/upper level low off to our west...this image is valid Saturday night. The trough will allow for some energy associated with vort maxs to rotate around this trough supplying the area with forcing needed for precip.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7ewAnOlFedKYt_9Of0Y8Ih4y7dvv_6Iyr7uQoWuzjvh_fA8WpxJJ0odCMNpMd5eILE5aseTmyt4uaxj0_16M_OK_fZ40zudE96MVFxxhm8mMH1DJCnR-Zua3hEZbSroTkwihirgCLV6aC/s1600/gfs300jet.bmp" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="239" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7ewAnOlFedKYt_9Of0Y8Ih4y7dvv_6Iyr7uQoWuzjvh_fA8WpxJJ0odCMNpMd5eILE5aseTmyt4uaxj0_16M_OK_fZ40zudE96MVFxxhm8mMH1DJCnR-Zua3hEZbSroTkwihirgCLV6aC/s320/gfs300jet.bmp" width="320" /></a></div><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeh9EksD0U8fZhTCFDKmlPS77gO0UvkcPNPhi08ZAiKKkhCrkzUa3voJ9LB0KXlgxIkzaRqxLC6ulkMwbCxGcNkXsixeojqgBFp-ZkTO9u7IzFJa8sCOfABGyOa-yf7S2VKMrISe5V86OS/s1600/tempsprecip.bmp" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><br />
</a></div>We should see enough forcing on the left exit region of this jet streak on Sunday morning to see precip in the valley floor.<br />
<br />
The cold air associated with this upper level low will drop snow levels easily below 5000 feet and I would not be shocked to see it drop below 4000 feet.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeh9EksD0U8fZhTCFDKmlPS77gO0UvkcPNPhi08ZAiKKkhCrkzUa3voJ9LB0KXlgxIkzaRqxLC6ulkMwbCxGcNkXsixeojqgBFp-ZkTO9u7IzFJa8sCOfABGyOa-yf7S2VKMrISe5V86OS/s1600/tempsprecip.bmp" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="238" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeh9EksD0U8fZhTCFDKmlPS77gO0UvkcPNPhi08ZAiKKkhCrkzUa3voJ9LB0KXlgxIkzaRqxLC6ulkMwbCxGcNkXsixeojqgBFp-ZkTO9u7IzFJa8sCOfABGyOa-yf7S2VKMrISe5V86OS/s320/tempsprecip.bmp" width="320" /></a></div> As of right now the low fails to strengthen as much as I would expect with the upper level dynamics. We'll have to wait until we get closer to the event for the higher resolution models to begin to pick this up.<br />
<br />
Depending on how quickly this upper level low moves out we could possibly see some thunderstorms Monday from the residual cold pool from the exiting trough.Robert Elvingtonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00496807094727050039noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2720218995495947518.post-51980323314799409182011-04-01T07:52:00.000-07:002011-04-01T07:52:16.456-07:00April 1st Forecast<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen='allowfullscreen' webkitallowfullscreen='webkitallowfullscreen' mozallowfullscreen='mozallowfullscreen' width='320' height='266' src='https://www.blogger.com/video.g?token=AD6v5dzT9RCA6gwGHt34_rB2BI0DngRg6viCzDSOA_9T-_Bl_g2zUc15GhEd5-V5oRmk11i9y2PyDEUIM2OJ5DHdsg' class='b-hbp-video b-uploaded' frameborder='0'></iframe></div>Lots of Sun this afternoon, clouds will begin to increase in the evening with isolated showers Saturday. This will be a weak system with much of the moisture confined to the higher elevations. Windy conditions possible on Sunday but we will clear out for the beginning of next work week.Robert Elvingtonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00496807094727050039noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2720218995495947518.post-50022988555264247532011-03-30T10:19:00.000-07:002011-03-30T10:19:28.683-07:0070s and 80s the Rest of the Week<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><object width="320" height="266" class="BLOGGER-youtube-video" classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,40,0" data-thumbnail-src="http://i.ytimg.com/vi/qZ6xrZG_VjQ/0.jpg"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/qZ6xrZG_VjQ?f=user_uploads&c=google-webdrive-0&app=youtube_gdata" /><param name="bgcolor" value="#FFFFFF" /><embed width="320" height="266" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/qZ6xrZG_VjQ?f=user_uploads&c=google-webdrive-0&app=youtube_gdata" type="application/x-shockwave-flash"></embed></object></div>Strong high pressure system over the area, combined that with strong down-sloping winds I think we might take a run at 80 this afternoon folks.Robert Elvingtonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00496807094727050039noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2720218995495947518.post-14515206978973677412011-03-24T07:39:00.001-07:002011-03-24T07:39:48.029-07:00Thursday Morning Update<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen='allowfullscreen' webkitallowfullscreen='webkitallowfullscreen' mozallowfullscreen='mozallowfullscreen' width='320' height='266' src='https://www.youtube.com/embed/rq5592oGr-Y?feature=player_embedded' frameborder='0'></iframe></div>Robert Elvingtonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00496807094727050039noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2720218995495947518.post-90604990214916943902011-03-20T13:54:00.001-07:002011-03-20T13:54:35.953-07:006:30 am Storm Update<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen='allowfullscreen' webkitallowfullscreen='webkitallowfullscreen' mozallowfullscreen='mozallowfullscreen' width='320' height='266' src='https://www.youtube.com/embed/JMQhOQMRCUM?feature=player_embedded' frameborder='0'></iframe></div>Robert Elvingtonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00496807094727050039noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2720218995495947518.post-24789113436417789582011-03-20T13:53:00.000-07:002011-03-20T13:53:53.898-07:001:00 am storm update<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen='allowfullscreen' webkitallowfullscreen='webkitallowfullscreen' mozallowfullscreen='mozallowfullscreen' width='320' height='266' src='https://www.youtube.com/embed/-rSv7UWDtfo?feature=player_embedded' frameborder='0'></iframe></div>Robert Elvingtonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00496807094727050039noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2720218995495947518.post-90893813777488466402011-03-18T18:08:00.000-07:002011-03-18T18:41:15.767-07:00Wind, Rain, and Heavy Snow This WeekendA lot to talk about with this up-coming storm system this weekend. A few lingering showers and storms this afternoon and evening. Tomorrow we will also see another chance of storms in the afternoon with low level convection tops.<br />
<br />
Now onto Sunday...<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhal1jVWqE6QhLle00mpjGkLO-lDOnJYWiABMAeqpPR-FWZpyOAAHJo4EdQPXGU5d8qqBBT4pDdvFjXKsybMCGmMx0r4ohU7raucFPochnByjeP9lmACLGaYG-prlrHlqSgbDulzunpoagW/s1600/sundaystorm.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="258" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhal1jVWqE6QhLle00mpjGkLO-lDOnJYWiABMAeqpPR-FWZpyOAAHJo4EdQPXGU5d8qqBBT4pDdvFjXKsybMCGmMx0r4ohU7raucFPochnByjeP9lmACLGaYG-prlrHlqSgbDulzunpoagW/s320/sundaystorm.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>Upper level low positioned to our North West. This upper level feature will help direct another surface low right through the NorthState area Sunday morning and Sunday afternoon. The inverted trough in the left hand corner of the image above is the surface low. It will rotate around the trough tonight, tomorrow, and Sunday morning.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1Os8Is7xSLHq7Ym3a1IOyjn5bCZU_6PIQSBJc-Bz1GuebRlnVDPYlRShDwaEzufLLKVgsliOgej3DM1saxIsP9nl4wQHhj5m76qp_UHOwNuE6wuwgdKpkISRPQPDlT9Y9tJXN-xnXwDBs/s1600/sundaywinds.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1Os8Is7xSLHq7Ym3a1IOyjn5bCZU_6PIQSBJc-Bz1GuebRlnVDPYlRShDwaEzufLLKVgsliOgej3DM1saxIsP9nl4wQHhj5m76qp_UHOwNuE6wuwgdKpkISRPQPDlT9Y9tJXN-xnXwDBs/s320/sundaywinds.JPG" width="256" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">988 surface low just to our southwest Sunday morning. A very strong low considering most we ever see are well above 1000 mb. The winds will slingshot up through the valley floor and Chico and points southward will see sustained winds of around 40-45 mph. Gusts up to 70 mph. This is already ontop of the unseasonably high rain fall we have been receiving the last 3 weeks. The ground is already saturated and we will pick up even more rain Sunday. So I would expect downed trees and even power lines.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggOaTMTmTHIR1Q7VJRjF_z3YY16tRX74llf4-q6nTeWdC1uO2-HlH3i0jPNyk2_Px37A7B3tc0sIAUx_KNvfrGhyBWlJIF0KNefKCQ7crgX6jwK3CdcJgNd-rWURpF-lr6EuFpGVzDOo5u/s1600/namrain.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="291" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggOaTMTmTHIR1Q7VJRjF_z3YY16tRX74llf4-q6nTeWdC1uO2-HlH3i0jPNyk2_Px37A7B3tc0sIAUx_KNvfrGhyBWlJIF0KNefKCQ7crgX6jwK3CdcJgNd-rWURpF-lr6EuFpGVzDOo5u/s320/namrain.JPG" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div>The valley floor could easily pick up another .5-1.5 inches of liquid, higher amounts to the south.<br />
<br />
Chester reported over 2 feet of snow Thursday night and into Friday. Higer elevations will pick up an additional foot of snow if not more, foothills, snow levels down to 2000 ft.<br />
<br />
HPC Totals Days 1-3<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrMgXzoowrHvK8wH9OoH1Z6sRrtREVgd9tfM3Mp0fJ31YIEj1VWQppKzRO54FwLFUSj0svmms2f5wQd2OSiaMCoMrcMomR5tIW_l833IdZJyim9kurBDOQoELZuKrqNksE6fgkI9ziYyVl/s1600/hpc.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="221" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrMgXzoowrHvK8wH9OoH1Z6sRrtREVgd9tfM3Mp0fJ31YIEj1VWQppKzRO54FwLFUSj0svmms2f5wQd2OSiaMCoMrcMomR5tIW_l833IdZJyim9kurBDOQoELZuKrqNksE6fgkI9ziYyVl/s320/hpc.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>Robert Elvingtonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00496807094727050039noreply@blogger.com0