Most of the returns you see in the reflectivity is failing to reach the ground....virga basically. Only the highest DBZ on the radar are actually making it to the sfc. So the dark blues and greens. Of course pockets of sprinkles could be mixed in as well in the swath of virga.
This is the GFS forecasted sounding 12 hrs out. You will notice that the entire "weather layer" is saturated and p-wat values are over 2 standard deviations above average. So a very moist humid Saturday and Saturday night. Also the winds to the right of the graphic are turning clockwise and strengthening with height. This is a veering wind which gives us WAA (warm air advection). WAA allows for QG lift as well as a warmer air mass throughout the saturated layer.
Combine this saturated airmass with a forecasted 1011 mb low late tonight, we should have enough forcing to squeeze out about a half inch for the NorthState valley floor. Snow levels will also be much higher, given the WAA, above 5500 ft. This system is very pre-spring like and is ushering us out of Winter.
The North State should clear out Sunday afternoon before our next upper level troph pushes through late Sunday Night. Could be enough forcing out affront of the troph to allow for additional showers . If the cold pool sticks around long enough Monday we could also be dealing with a very unstable atmosphere given daytime heating. Lapse rates could easily climb over 9 and with any surface forcing we could be dealing with storms and small hail early Monday afternoon. I think the cut off will be 2-3:00 at the latest of Monday if not much earlier.
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