Partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies this afternoon as of 12:00 pm. The valley will quickly begin to transition over to cloudy skies and late afternoon showers before the main onset of the heavy rain arrives later tonight.
With a strong short wave off to our west, The NorthState will receive adequate forcing with strong QG forcing out a front the mid level disturbance. The 12z Nam and GFS put out quite a bit of precip tonight and into the overnight hours. Still learning the local biases I am not entirely aware of GFS convective feedback issues. However, this system should have no issues overcoming terrain problems and I fully expect a good soaking rain this evening and into tomorrow night.
HPC has put down 1.5-2.5 inches of QPF for days 1-2, with higher amounts for the highest elevations.
I'll talk about the weekend system in detail tomorrow.
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